Gordon Reid MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC Common Stock MDLZ-Q DON'T BUY May 14, 2024

International snack giant. 200-day MA is sideways to slightly negative, stock price is now below it. Fundamentals show only mid-single-digit earnings growth, paying 20x for it. Cost pressures, margin compression. Intense competition. Foreign currency has not helped.

For a consumer staples name, look at Loblaw or COST.

It is a large consumer products company and has gone though re-structuring. Pays a rock solid dividend. Although high quality it is low growth so he sees better better value in the field.

Limited private-label competition. During pandemic, good at passing cost increases along to consumers without demand falling off. Concerns about impact of weight-loss drugs has abated. But huge increase in cocoa prices, at 47-year highs. Still happy to own.

Trades at 18x PE, with 5% growth. He likes growth at a reasonable price, so 5% doesn't cut it. Stock's moved below 200-day MA, which is falling. Short-term technicals look weak. Demand for GLP-1 drugs will impact a lot of companies in the food business.

These companies have traded off on the fears of GLP-1. Volumes starting to drop. Growth metrics just don't support the valuations in the space. About 60% of revenue from international sources, so strong USD is a major headwind.

Biggest issue is growth. Well run, amazing brands. Valuation north of 20x, yet growth profile not as robust. Economic uncertainty, bit of weakness in discretionary spending.

Buying Hershey's will be a large purchase for them. MDLZ is attractively priced, but he wouldn't buy. He prefers Lindt, which has outperformed. But he likes staples at this part of the cycle.

Down YOY, but has actually held up well during recent market uncertainty. 40% of revenue from EMs, which tend to have stronger long-term, secular growth. Cocoa prices spiked, and chocolate is 30% of its business, so they guided earnings down. Long-term outlook still attractive, expanding into adjacent categories.

Is a top food stock, despite selling a lot of chocolate (in the face of the weight-loss drugs). Pays a 3% dividend and is up 10% this year. The CEO has done a pretty good job.

Decent company. Has done pretty well since being spun out of Kraft.