McDonaldsMCDBUYNov 05, 2019Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 04, 2026. Market Open.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Was downgraded last Friday and today over fears they won't meet expectations this quarter, including disappointment over MCD's new chicken strips dish, that it won't turn things around. Rather, customer prefer heavily breaded chicken and the find these strips ugly. However, history says it has never paid to downgrade MCD. It's the king, offering good value and is highly well-run. The CEO will figure it out.
MCD vs. QSR long-term He would've chosen MCD up until a few days ago when the CEO was fired. That CEO boosted margins and invested well in tech. They had 17 quarters of rising sales. Can the new guy keep this up? MCD is probably in better shape now because of him and good to own for the next little while; there's momentum here. QSR, in contrast, is made up of several chains. However, QSR has done well in pushing non-meat products, whereas MCD is not there yet. QSR could push ahead of MCD, given this. He'd still choose McDonald's.