Manitoba Telecom Services (MBT.TO) Buy, Sell…

Manitoba Telecom Services (MBT.TO)

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TOP PICK

Have had a lot of trouble with the fibre-optic side of the business through Allstream but thinks it is still potentially a great asset. As some point they will either have success or will sell it. Nice solid yield.

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COMMENT

Recently cut dividends but are still over distributing. Has been a nightmare story for 3-4 years. Worst performing telco. Bought Allstream about 6 years ago and it blew up on them. Slightly more compelling now as he thinks there is a $4-$5 embedded value on the stock. Might look at this in the near future, especially if it goes lower.

HOLD

Can’t see a lot of growth and upside. Recently cut dividends by a third. Trading at about 12X next year's numbers. Battle between having an increasing environment on the phone side versus enterprise spending might be slowing down given the recession. Dividend should be secure. Fair value at this price.

COMMENT

Telus (T-T) or BCE (BCE-T) would be a better place to be if you want a telecom holding. They are in growth markets and have more scale and are able to get into other lines of business. There might be a bounce but over the long haul, others would be better.

DON'T BUY

Not much influence outside of Manitoba. If they try to expand their wireless, they could be eroded by one of the bigger companies. As concerns about its continued ability to grow earnings. 6.7% dividend.

HOLD

Surprised that they had cut their dividend this year but you are still getting 6%. Doubt if they will cut it again. Likes their Allstream holding.

SELL

Not participated in the massive rally we had. Allstream asset is bleeding them. Also have pension issues. A real risk of a distribution cut.

SELL

Paying around 100% of their earnings out in dividends and that is always a worry. Also, there is no growth here. There is a lot more wireless competition in Canada. Doesn't own any telecom stocks in Canada right now.

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BUY

An analyst came out and broadcast that they were borrowing to pay their dividend so it dropped in May. Company said there will be no cut in the dividend until 2011. Allstream has been a bit of a black hole.

SELL

Has a model price of $24.66, which is a negative 11%. Estimates of $2.04 earnings this year and $2.08 next year. Pays out $2.60, which is paying you with your capital. Dividend is too high so he expects a cut.

DON'T BUY

People are worried about sustainability of the dividend. Had weak results from their Allstream division and debt levels have been rising. Would prefer others.

DON'T BUY

9% dividend but payout is more than 100% of earnings. Will probably cut their dividend to 6% and he then sees the stock moving sideways from there. If you are interested in this, via on the day they cut the distribution when the price drops.

DON'T BUY

Even though they pay a very good dividend, their problem is Allstream, the enterprise unit that they bought a few years ago. Doesn't believe the dividend is sustainable. This solution would be to sell Allstream but it is hard to see who would want to buy it.

COMMENT

Earnings are barely covering dividends. If earnings trend continues to sink, it throws dividends into question. Upside is the strong balance sheet which could maintain the dividend. Board would have to deal with this and he doesn't know which way they would go.

COMMENT

The low price of the stock indicates they are going to cut the dividend. Payout ratio of 100%. Unlikely that any other telco will acquire this.

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Manitoba Telecom Services (MBT.TO)