Lightstream ResourcesLTS.TOCOMMENTSep 13, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
At these prices, you are betting that the company doesn’t have to restructure before oil prices recover. He thinks we are in the middle of a bounce in oil that will retrace a little bit. In the near term he is cautious on oil, but in the 2nd half of the year thinks we are going to get a sustainable recovery in oil prices. This company is going to be challenged, but you are at about $1.50 right now. It is like a bit of an option right now, in that you are betting on a recovery before a restructuring.
SHORT. This has come down a lot already and he thinks it continues to drift down to $0.20, and maybe even lower. Their big problem is that they have a lot of debt. They are trying desperately to shore up their balance sheet and sell their south east Bakken lands, with no real luck. Debt to cash flow is 7.1X. Have already slashed their CapX budget by 61% and the dividend by 63%.
13.1% dividend yield and she feels there is a chance that they might cut this because the capital program as well as the dividend comes out to about 130% of cash flow. Have a lot of debt on the books of about 3-3.5 times cash flow, which is high for her. If oil prices were to pull back, that payout ratio would be a lot more. However she doesn’t think the risk of a distribution cut is imminent and you might have a few more months, because management seems to believe that they can continue to use the line to fund operations.