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Opinions Eric Nuttall
Longview OilLNV.TOBUYSep 19, 2012
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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(Top Pick Aug 15/13, Up 39.15%) It was taken out at a fair price. The markets liked it. He is still in SGY-T who acquired them.
Robert Lauzon(Top Pick Aug 15/13, Up 39.15%) It was acquired and you now have SGY-T shares.
Robert Lauzon(A Top Pick April 1/13. Up 57.27%.) A take over by Surge Energy (SGY-T). Surge has a really great growth profile with a yield of about 8%. Deal hasn’t closed just yet. For the next little bit, Surge is worth holding on to.
Paul Gardner, CFAAdvantage owned about 40% and decided to divest. A buyer of these shares was going to buy LNV out but has cooled. Market perceives the takeout probability has declined. He sold some earlier and bought back cheaper.
Mason GrangerAdvantage Energy (AAV-T) is peeling out its control position, which has basically been done. The mystery buyer has taken a piece of this offering. This company is an interesting story in its own right. If boil out the numbers on the current $5.25, and take a guess as to what might happen, he thinks you could come up with a $6 price on the stock, giving a little bit of upside from here. It’s a company in transition and he would like to know who the buyer is first.
A tough one. Likes this one. It got spun out of a parent Nat. Gas. Company a couple of years ago. He hoped they could incrementally add volume to it over time but that has not happened. They cut the dividend. He treats it like a bond investment. If it sits long enough then someone else comes along and buys them for the potential cash flow.
(Market Call Minute) More like a bond than a stock. Wants to see production absolutely stabilize.
Bill Harris, CFA(A Top Pick June 13/12. Down 11.92%.) This is the oil that really got hit and has sort of been orphaned. Nothing particularly wrong with the company. 10% dividend is safe for now.
Bill Harris, CFANot well followed. Not a lot of institutional ownership. A dull, boring story. Decline rate of 19-20%, which is what everyone wants right now. 11.5% sustainable yield even if at 100% payout ratio. A sleeper pick.
Robert Lauzon
Heavy oil. Trading at .6 times NAV. 12.68% sustainable distribution. He thinks it is incredibly cheap. Thinks it will track back to previous levels.
Paul Gardner, CFA(A Top Pick March 29/12. Down 46.17%.) Their debt has crept up and he feels the market is questioning the sustainability of the dividend. Have light oil focus and he continues to think decline rates are fairly modest. They should think about selling some non-core assets and instituting a DRIP program.
Mason Granger
Cut their guidance in Q2 of this year when oil prices were very low but only cut production about 4%-5%. Advantage Oil (AAV-T) owns 45%-46% have indicated they want to become a purer play and are selling all of their non-core assets but indicated they won’t sell this company’s shares. Some in the market do not believe that, so the stock price has been suppressed. You have a low decline asset base, predominantly light oil, that is paying about 8.5%-8.6% and the dividend is very safe.