Stockchase Opinions

Paul Gardner, CFA Longview Oil LNV-T PAST TOP PICK May 05, 2014

(A Top Pick April 1/13. Up 57.27%.) A take over by Surge Energy (SGY-T). Surge has a really great growth profile with a yield of about 8%. Deal hasn’t closed just yet. For the next little bit, Surge is worth holding on to.

$6.900

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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TOP PICK

Not well followed. Not a lot of institutional ownership. A dull, boring story. Decline rate of 19-20%, which is what everyone wants right now. 11.5% sustainable yield even if at 100% payout ratio. A sleeper pick.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 13/12. Down 11.92%.) This is the oil that really got hit and has sort of been orphaned. Nothing particularly wrong with the company. 10% dividend is safe for now.

BUY

(Market Call Minute) More like a bond than a stock. Wants to see production absolutely stabilize.

HOLD

A tough one. Likes this one. It got spun out of a parent Nat. Gas. Company a couple of years ago. He hoped they could incrementally add volume to it over time but that has not happened. They cut the dividend. He treats it like a bond investment. If it sits long enough then someone else comes along and buys them for the potential cash flow.

COMMENT

Advantage Energy (AAV-T) is peeling out its control position, which has basically been done. The mystery buyer has taken a piece of this offering. This company is an interesting story in its own right. If boil out the numbers on the current $5.25, and take a guess as to what might happen, he thinks you could come up with a $6 price on the stock, giving a little bit of upside from here. It’s a company in transition and he would like to know who the buyer is first.

BUY

Advantage owned about 40% and decided to divest. A buyer of these shares was going to buy LNV out but has cooled. Market perceives the takeout probability has declined. He sold some earlier and bought back cheaper.

WATCH

Consider selling it and putting money into another name. He is concerned about the overall asset quality in general. If they showed him they could meet capital efficiency numbers, he would buy the stock. 4.9% distribution.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Aug 15/13, Up 39.15%) It was acquired and you now have SGY-T shares.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Aug 15/13, Up 39.15%) It was taken out at a fair price. The markets liked it. He is still in SGY-T who acquired them.