Stockchase Opinions

Mike Philbrick iShares US Real Estate ETF IYR-N PAST TOP PICK Aug 31, 2018

(A Top Pick July 30/18 Up 4%) Since the correction in February, it has out-performed the S&P. This is a great global real estate holding.

$83.180

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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TOP PICK

Seasonal strength does well until May 5th, so take advantage of weakness to get in ready for the summer strength. Usually gains 7.1% over the summer. 3 out of 4 years. Mix of real estate products. Sell in September.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 9/13. Down 14.85%.) REITs have a period of seasonal strength in the spring and summer months. However on May 22, shortly after his appearance, there were signs of weakness.

COMMENT

This is just coming to an end of its 1st period of seasonal strength. It tends to do well in the springtime, March through to May. The next period of strength is from July through to October.

HOLD

Historically REITs have done quite well in the summer. This one shows a nice upward trend and you are into a period of seasonal strength, which only lasts until the end of September. If you own the stock, continue to hold.

TOP PICK

About a 4% yield. You are starting to see some pretty significant asset flows. It is a complementary asset to stock and bond portfolios. You are starting to see fund flows into this area.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 30/18, Up 15%) Long duration asset like real estate that responds the best when interest rates drop. Has been trimming, but still owns.
PARTIAL SELL
Makes up 68% in a portfolio. Interest rates helped this. Bring it way down. IYR is okay, but it will flatten out after a serious move up since 2010. If you hold this in a taxable account, reduce your holding to 30% and look at investing in international markets. 68% is way way too much. Be careful.
WAIT
IYR vs. XRE Totally different products because of the country, given XRE is Canada and IYR is the US. XRE top 31% investments are in retail. IYR has only 9% retail. For residential, it's 25% XRE and only 15% IYR. Largest holding in IYR is AMT. IYR is more diversified, less exposed to retail which is a good thing. Safer place to be at this time is IYR. REITs usually do well from March to October, but this might start earlier this earlier, especially if markets turn down. Wait until February/March.
BUY

Homebuilders are hitting 52-weeks highs today. But IYR, which holds commercial REITs, remains down 25% from its highs. She likes IYR, if rates come down and real estates prices rebound.