President & portfolio manager at Shaunessy Investment Counsel
Member since: May '10 · 455 Opinions
For recent years, he's been off and on preferred shares. Preferreds are volatile. When interest rates plunged 2-3 years ago, this asset class got reamed. HPR pays a big dividend, but also offers huge volatility. Also, it lacks the growth of stocks but carries the volatility. He had a terrible experience with this. Look at ZUP-T, which covers US preferreds which are largely fixed-rate, a key difference to Canadian preferreds. Also, US preferreds are less volatile than Canadians.
You're in the heart of market performance. The top names here have been driving the market in the past 5 years and especially this year, like Amazon. This ETF is fully priced. He's worried about FAANG, actually. Hedged is okay.
(A Top Pick Jan 24/20, Up 12%) Owns a lot of this. Two-thirds of this are mega-cap Chinese and Korean stocks, including Alibaba, Tencent and Samsung which rank among the biggest in the world by market cap. Yet, they aren't in indexes like EAFE. Eventually he thinks these big names will be migrated into the regular global ETFs. For now, XEC is the way to play them. Growth will come from Asia.
Or other similar ETFs? They're all basically the same thing: the S&P 500, the number one index in the world, holding every famous American stock you can think of. Looking ahead, he expects other country indexes to outpace the S&P 500, including the TSX. But you should still have some exposure to the S&P 500. Go with the equal-weighted S&P 500, rather than the hedged or unhedged ETF. Go with the EQL--it's fine. Don't worry about the CAD, because the Bank of Canada won't allow the CAD to go much above 79 cents.
And how to judge an ETF? He starts with the asset class. Large caps: 60% America and 10% emerging with 3-4% in Canada. Look at the sector and stock exposure of the ETF you're considering. Here, these are ex-North America, an area he is really fond of now, because he expects emphasis to shift outside America in 2021. There's much more emphasis on non-tech sector, which will benefit from the reopening and cyclical recovery. For ETFs, he looks less at PE ratios. He also looks at liquidity. He has a bias in favour of Blackrock, because it's the most liquid ETF provider. (He owns BMO, Vanguard and Horizon, too.) Look at MER. Key is what makes up an ETF.