Opinions
David Driscoll
ICICI Bank Ltd.
IBN-N
COMMENT
Jan 29, 2018
$11.090
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Inflation is rising in India because of oil imports, plus strong US dollar. All Indian banks have been falling. With typhoons and people moving to online banking, they’re scrambling. Not the time to be stepping into EM. They’re cheap, but they could be getting a lot cheaper. EMs are twice as risky as NA and European.
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COMMENT
India has been affected by covid. In India, prefers HDFC Bank over IBN, which is the second largest bank. Loan losses have been less at HDFC and they have maintained higher capital ratios. As India rounds the last corner of covid, the name should do well. Longer term demographic and macro trends are positive.
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BUY
The issue with banking is that it's macro-country issue. So, with India, owning a bank stock is really good. As the middle class grows there, banks will thrive, but there's volatility in Indian banks, because their economy is more unpredictable. Overall, he likes this. Either buy a bank or ETF for India.
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DON'T BUY
If you are going to be in an emerging market like India, then you want to be in consumer products or financials, because they are going to get you to all the consumers that are out there. For him, it was between HDFC Bank and this company. HDFC had better metrics. You will be dealing with the volatility of being in India. Both stocks had huge run ups last year in the 30%-40% range. They are pausing right now because they have to see what is going to happen with all of economic changes the government has put through. The government is allowing banks to write off bad loans and to start fresh again. These 2 are probably the best capitalized of the banks, and therefore the least risky. You are going to have volatility of roughly 30%-40% a year and will have to live with it. (See Top Picks.)