Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA IBM Common Stock IBM-N COMMENT Sep 30, 2024

He added it last May, and up 51% since. Today's more fully valued at 23x. Remains a long-term hold, given their AI consulting.

It wasn't seen as an AI play until their partnership with Microsoft. Shares then rallied. He sold around $235 after the PE jumped as its value dropped. 

Legacy tech giants like this have been some of the top names this year and are a good place to hide. They boast strong earnings, reasonable valuations and good growth in AI.

Between hardware and software, higher margins and greater growth still belong to the software side. He's looking more to consulting, with its higher margins.

It sank 6.6% right after earnings. The market got it wrong--this is a buy opportunity. After a lost decade, they returned to growth a few years ago. They spun off their legacy business and doubled-down on their Red Hat division, essential for AI. Rallied 34% last year, and held up even when AI corrected. YOY revenue was +2%, software +7%, consulting -2% and infrastructure -6%. Bountiful cash flow, though. Also, the reiterated full-year guidance. The quarter and business are good.

Good part is that it's part of quantitative computing, and this is where the stock can rally in the next 5-10 years. Doesn't feel it can put enough money in to become one of the leaders in that area. That's why he owns MSFT.

This is the next phase. We've been in this AI growth patch for a while now, which won't end, but quantum is the next level. It answers a lot of the problems that we deal with in the world such as medical issues and cybersecurity.

Problem is, not a lot of developed companies in the space. The industry is quite immature, but sometimes (if you have a longer time horizon) that's where you find opportunities for decent, long-term growth. Unlike AI, quantum needs a lot of space (perhaps it could solve office realty issues). IBM is starting to look more prominent in that space.

Is up 71% since he added it a year ago. Has become more fully valued at 25x PE. Still a great business with modest revenue growth and margin expansion. They benefit from the transition from a consulting business to an software, AI-led. They are emerging as a leading quantum computing play.

Is a quantum computing play, Watson AI is a tailwind and Red Hat is monetizing as well as leading in AI.

She bought it when it was trading at 12x PE and yielded over 5%. Diversifying away from mainframe computers to cloud and AI will raise growth in the future.