Opinions
Colin Stewart
IBM Common Stock
IBM-N
DON'T BUY
Feb 17, 2015
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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It sank 6.6% right after earnings. The market got it wrong--this is a buy opportunity. After a lost decade, they returned to growth a few years ago. They spun off their legacy business and doubled-down on their Red Hat division, essential for AI. Rallied 34% last year, and held up even when AI corrected. YOY revenue was +2%, software +7%, consulting -2% and infrastructure -6%. Bountiful cash flow, though. Also, the reiterated full-year guidance. The quarter and business are good.
This is the next phase. We've been in this AI growth patch for a while now, which won't end, but quantum is the next level. It answers a lot of the problems that we deal with in the world such as medical issues and cybersecurity.
Problem is, not a lot of developed companies in the space. The industry is quite immature, but sometimes (if you have a longer time horizon) that's where you find opportunities for decent, long-term growth. Unlike AI, quantum needs a lot of space (perhaps it could solve office realty issues). IBM is starting to look more prominent in that space.
Is up 71% since he added it a year ago. Has become more fully valued at 25x PE. Still a great business with modest revenue growth and margin expansion. They benefit from the transition from a consulting business to an software, AI-led. They are emerging as a leading quantum computing play.
Has owned it in the past. When he held this at $180, the market was ignoring IBM's AI business and saw low growth. So, he bought it. IBM teamed up with Meta to enhance their Watson franchise. He made good money. Then, he started to see the PE rising into the 20s, and Accenture and other peers reported weak results. So, he exited and wouldn't re-enter.
Doesn’t like this one. Has been around for years and, early on, was a very innovative company. There is a perception that over the last 5 years, they have not really innovated. Instead, they have taken their cash flow and just bought back their own stock. As a result, they haven’t invested in R&D and new products the way they should have. In the last several quarters, the company has largely disappointed on earnings and growth outlook. A very big ship and is not going to be easy to turn around.