Stock price when the opinion was issued
Believes this is worth more than what it is trading at. He exited his position because he was very frustrated that they didn’t take any the offers that came their way. Although he has a high regard for management, one of the issues is that management is well paid, but they don’t own a lot of stock, so there is no big incentive for them.
This is a North Sea play. Their biggest field, Stella, is expected to come online in January. Assuming it comes online as planned, the stock looks very cheap, trading at about 4.5X debt adjusted cash flow. Its peers are trading more at 6-8 times. Expect there will be some re-rating once the Stella field comes online.
This has a stellar project in the UK. They’ve had lots of delays in getting the platform, and basically there was a lot of expectations for them to have a massive increase in cash flow a long time ago. It does look like it is going to hit this year, even with another delay. They’ll probably get production going substantially above previous levels. The stock is very, very cheap. They’ll take the cash flow and bring down debt, and the stock should get re-rated. There is plenty of potential if things go right.
Exited his position a couple of months ago when they announced the Stella results and the stock bumped about 30% in a month. It always looks cheap. Because it is the North Sea with $50 million per well, some times it takes a long time. He would look at buying it back, but closer to $2. He can see $3.20 but based on track record, that would be the 2015 target.