Harvest Energy Trust (HTE.UN.TO) Buy, Sell or…

Harvest Energy Trust (HTE.UN.TO)

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5 watching

WATCH

Have been very acquisitive. Good size trust. Buying a refinery in Newfoundland, which is a big acquisition and will have to raise a lot of money to pay for it. Keep an eye on how they finance it.

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DON'T BUY

Acquired Viking and paid a reasonably fair price. Announced today that they had bought Come By Chance refinery in Newfoundland for $1.6 billion. Likes this, but is concerned that this is a new business for them and that the refining and marketing will be controlled by the seller.

DON'T BUY

Broke some support. Would be careful of anything energy-related. The yield is too high which suggests problems.

DON'T BUY

Oil-based trust with a yield in the 14% range. Payout ratio is in the 70% range. The assets they took on from Viking are not the highest quality. Sold his holdings because of the integration risks.

DON'T BUY

Merged with Viking and neither were on his top lists. Viking had heavy oil assets and Harvest had a short reserve life. Will watch to see how it performs.

DON'T BUY

Oil/gas trusts are at risk as the price of natural gas has been very weak and the costs of production has risen substantially. Sector has done well for many years but there is a risk of distribution cuts as well as a multiple contraction.

BUY

If oil prices stay were they are, this trust will do well. Has grown dramatically through the years, both organically and through acquisitions. Have a shorter reserve life than the average.

DON'T BUY

This wouldn't be one that he would own in royalty trusts. Have had a 21% distribution cut a couple of months ago. Has a lot of heavy oil. Have had some production misses.

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HOLD

Has merged with Viking and there is some integration risk. Better royalty trusts available. Has a lower than average reserve life.

DON'T BUY

Got some had publicity in the newspaper this morning. You would be better off with a higher quality one.

WEAK BUY

Acquired Viking Energy Trust which he owned. Their capital spending is increasing. Payout ratio is 110/115%. Not a bad trust, but there are better opportunities out there.

WAIT

He just sold his holdings. Has just merged with Viking Energy and he wants to let that story play out and see how they integrate as it was a fairly substantial acquisition.

HOLD

He used to own Harvest Energybefore the merger with Viking . It is down a liitle because of the situation and gas has been weak. Fine longer term. Still hold.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Have done a good job. Their acquisitions have given them diversification. A good hold and would buy on any weakness.

SELL

Liked it better before the merger with Viking. May be a little bit overvalued now. Would switch into a Canetic Resources (CNE.UN-T) or Penn West Energy (PWT.UN-T) which are much cheaper and have a potential upside bump from greater exposure to US investors.

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Harvest Energy Trust (HTE.UN.TO)