Opinions
Ross Healy
Home Capital Group
HCG-T
TOP PICK
Oct 05, 2017
$13.820
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BUY
What is interesting about them is that they came through mortgage hell in 2008 with barely a ripple. It has also emerged from COVID-19 issues with barely a ripple. It is very cheap compared to its long term book value of $45. The fair market value is huge and the balance sheet is fine. He wishes they would institute a dividend that would give investors more comfortable that everything is fine. He thinks deferred mortgage payments will not be an issue for them. In a recovery, it will do very well.
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STRONG BUY
A few years ago, it was one of his beloved stocks until it got slammed by comments from the U.S. and OSC. It has since rebounded. Its fair market value is 154% higher than the current price. If it can break out from the current $45 price, this will enjoy a nice upside. They are also buying back a lot of shares, which he thinks is stupid; raise the dividend instead.
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DON'T BUY
If you want to own a lender, please own Canadian bank stocks instead. HCG and others don't have the same access to capital, so they can get caught in a liquidity squeeze. Borrowers pay a higher rate of interest. If housing market has a hiccup, HCG would be more exposed than the banks.
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He had been anxious to see how diluted the BV was going to be. Actually, not much happened. The balance sheet remains pretty much intact. Now that all the rubbish is behind them, the company can do what they were doing. Analysts are starting to get a little friskier with their earnings forecasts. In the next 6-12 months, he thinks we are going to see more and more upside momentum. On top of that, they may very well reinstate part of the dividend. The stock is trading at a huge discount to Book. (Analysts’ price target is $17.)