Opinions
Michael Sprung
Home Capital Group
HCG-T
PAST TOP PICK
Sep 13, 2017
$14.030
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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BUY
What is interesting about them is that they came through mortgage hell in 2008 with barely a ripple. It has also emerged from COVID-19 issues with barely a ripple. It is very cheap compared to its long term book value of $45. The fair market value is huge and the balance sheet is fine. He wishes they would institute a dividend that would give investors more comfortable that everything is fine. He thinks deferred mortgage payments will not be an issue for them. In a recovery, it will do very well.
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STRONG BUY
A few years ago, it was one of his beloved stocks until it got slammed by comments from the U.S. and OSC. It has since rebounded. Its fair market value is 154% higher than the current price. If it can break out from the current $45 price, this will enjoy a nice upside. They are also buying back a lot of shares, which he thinks is stupid; raise the dividend instead.
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DON'T BUY
If you want to own a lender, please own Canadian bank stocks instead. HCG and others don't have the same access to capital, so they can get caught in a liquidity squeeze. Borrowers pay a higher rate of interest. If housing market has a hiccup, HCG would be more exposed than the banks.
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(A Top Pick Nov 4/16. Down 43%.) The whole market was somewhat askance at how the situation on this was handled. It literally caused a run on the bank. Also, for a while, it was tenuous as to whether this would survive. It fell so fast, that he decided not to dump his shares. His feeling was that the fundamentals of this business were still intact. They’ve managed to execute a recovery which was very astute. This was followed by Warren Buffett stepping in, and funding costs started going down. Recently announced they were going to stop paying some of the excessive rates they were paying on GICs, etc. He is still buying shares.