Stockchase Opinions

Andrey OmelchakKnight TherapeuticsGUD.TOPAST TOP PICKApr 01, 2025

(A Top Pick Sep 10/24, Up 3%)

Solid hold over the longer term, need patience. Accumulate on any pullback. Volatility of Latin American markets is not helping, so watch that. Understands how to monetize recent acquisition.

$6.12

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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WATCH

Value here. Market's looking for better consistency on earnings so it can keep on with its business model of buying "orphaned" drugs. On his radar because it's cheap.

WATCH
Investor will "probably die" owning it in his RRIF.

Fits and starts, always lots of promise. Good management, but stock never quite delivers. Right now lots of chop on the chart, so the market's trying to hold at current levels of $5.75-6. If it can't hold, will probably head back down to $5.14. A lot of the technical indicators are oversold, but justice is not guaranteed by it going back up.

You have to decide if you want to ride it out or go elsewhere. Healthcare is getting interesting. See his Top Picks.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 10/24, Up 5%)

Shares are flat, but the company has done well the past 12 months. Topline is doing well as are Brazil operations. Margins are expanding. You need patience.

DON'T BUY

Numbers are OK, but not fantastic. Better names in the sector. Lot of respect for management. May not be able to recapture the glory days of buying rights to distribute older drugs.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 10/24, Down 11%)

(Note the short timeframe.)
One of the cheapest small caps, accumulate on weakness. Pullback gives you the opportunity. Good job setting stage for margin improvement over time, not overnight. High net-cash position. Capital discipline, good insider ownership. 

TOP PICK

A hidden gem. Low liquidity, but has good topline growth, strong margin expansion potential and the CEO has a great track record from Paladin Labs. It buys existing drug platforms, and can now leverage that platform to introduce new drug therapies. Huge net cash and keep buying back shares. 

(Analysts’ price target is $7.60)
DON'T BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

The stock is acting better, and is up 15% YTD. It has been a while since it saw $6. EPS was -4c vs expectations of (nil). Revenue was $86.6M, beating estimates of $83.1M. EBITDA of $13.58M missed estimates of this $14.47M. Guidance was largely maintained. Revenue rose 4.9%, with margins a bit higher than estimates. Net cash is about $90M. Still not much excitement here. Some recent partnerships look more interesting than the quarterly results. It is good to see the sales gain, but we would not yet call this a dramatic turn. 
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DON'T BUY

Years ago, they bought a major company that he owned a lot of shares in. He's waiting for another such purchase by GUD before considering it. He's looking for companies with growth and earnings.

HOLD

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Trades at a cheap valuation. Investors’ patience has run out. Recent acquisition gave it a new life. Current environment can be favorable. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. I Good Q2 results but weaker bottom line. Growth potential remains. No dividend to keep investors patient. Valuation arguably more attractive today.
BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Trades at a cheap valuation. Investors’ patience has run out. Recent acquisition gave it a new life. Current environment can be favorable.
HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Trades at a cheap valuation. Investors’ patience has run out. Recent acquisition gave it a new life. Current environment can be favorable. Rating maintained at ‘B'.
HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Sales 30% ahead of estimates. M&A pipeline active, investors expect more. COVID helped sales growth. Impressive quarter results.
WAIT
The superstar CEO with a great track record raised a pile of cash, but didn't do anything with it. He had a short position on this 6 months ago, and covered that recently. GUD has poor price momentum, though little volatility, and no real earnings. PE is high, though a strong balance sheet. This is a show-me story.