Alphabet IncGOOGDON'T BUYMay 07, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 10, 2026. Market Open.
Fears that AI would eat its lunch. Harder for Anthropic to monetize a new tool than for GOOG to take AI and apply it to a business model that it already monetizes. Muscle memory of the populace gravitates to GOOG to find information. Probably thrives in the new AI world, until something more disruptive comes along.
AI monetization is happening, and AI Mode has been a game changer. Stronger cloud growth (revenue grew 63% YOY last quarter, tremendous), broader monetization across platforms. Search and advertising remain strong, lots of cashflow. Also a great ecosystem.
Good growth, but relatively decent valuation. Yield is 0.25%.
A year ago, consensus was that Search was going to die. Seems ridiculous now. Gemini is overtaking ChatGPT. Data centre business is growing faster than before. Still not that expensive. He hasn't sold any shares yet, but may take some off the table from the long-term holding and put toward one of the Mag 7 laggards.
He sold it recently. This news is very significant. Google won't disappear--they have a steady business--but the duopoly Google shares with Meta in internet ads is in question. This is a watershed moment. For the first time, Google is competing in core search, particular AI which are growing better and complex, yet easier to use and attracting a younger user. Also, Google faces a problem in travel search declining from less traveling and tariffs. It's been said that travel search accounts for 13% of Google searches.