Greg NewmanAlphabet IncGOOGWAITDec 19, 2024

AI monetization is happening, and AI Mode has been a game changer. Stronger cloud growth (revenue grew 63% YOY last quarter, tremendous), broader monetization across platforms. Search and advertising remain strong, lots of cashflow. Also a great ecosystem. 

Good growth, but relatively decent valuation. Yield is 0.25%.

Still one of the highest-quality businesses in the world. Wide range of opportunities despite the runup. Cloud has been doing extremely well. Reasonable valuation. 9/10 on fundamentals. Regulatory scrutiny a potential risk. Massive user base, proprietary data.

First quarter since Covid it didn't buy back stock. Raised capex by $5B. Gemini is outstanding, leading it to win at Search as well as to concrete monetization. Only trading at 22x PE for 2028 and 17% growth. Stock still works, more to go.

A year ago, consensus was that Search was going to die. Seems ridiculous now. Gemini is overtaking ChatGPT. Data centre business is growing faster than before. Still not that expensive. He hasn't sold any shares yet, but may take some off the table from the long-term holding and put toward one of the Mag 7 laggards.

Will lose market share on Search. But it's a story of a much bigger pie, so their eventual benefit will be much greater. Pulled AI into the Search model, and Gemini is in a leadership position. Multiple in the high 20s still undemanding. Spits out lots of cash. Lots of irons in the fire.

Completely vertically integrated -- owns the silicon, the best models, awesome distribution platform. Search was declared dead in the water, but revenue is actually growing. A more comfortable pick than MSFT.

Given its networks, will be a direct beneficiary from AI. Expensive, and has to grow into its multiple. So many divisions at play. Yield is 0.22%.

Popped so much on earnings because it's the clear winner on AI. Eclipsed ChatGPT in the ability to advertise on AI and to integrate everything.

They turned in a great report about Google cloud which surprised him. They've improved margin despite spending aggressively in building their cloud.

They reported today and beat in every line. Cloud revenues surged 63% YOY. Search remains strong. Q1 revenues beat.

It has outperformed its guidance for the last six quarters and we should see pretty good numbers in the next quarter.

Doing great. Worries about Search becoming obsolete were baseless, though its share of searching will fall. However, the pie will expand and so total revenue will grow. Gemini has a leadership position in AI. 

Plus there's YouTube --  about 23% global streaming share and caters to shorter attention spans. Waymo also adds to this very powerful compounder.

Moat is pretty phenomenal. Strongest pillar are the networks. Largest index of "intent" data -- what people want right now. That data allows them to target ads. 70% of the world's operating systems are Android. 

Sheer scale of its infrastructure lets them run massive AI models at a much lower unit cost. His 12-month price target is $378. Yield is 0.25%.

Has long been a core holding. Until recently, GOOG was always trading at a discount to larger peers because of an antitrust overhang. Likes this a lot, but so does the market. The PE is above 26x (too high) and the free cash flow is just 2%. Is a hold now.