Greg NewmanAlphabet IncGOOGWAITDec 19, 2024

Revenue's grown 26% on average, per year, for the last decade. That's quite transformative. Subscriptions plus cloud are growing quickly. Valuation's quite attractive compared to historical comparisons. Attractive entry level at 16.7x forward PE. Small yield of 0.26%.

He bought more. Their big knock is their massive spend, but it's now more disciplined and targeted. Is a long-term hold. A strong, diversified play.

Well run, unique opportunities. Gushes cash, can use it to fund the AI infrastructure buildout. He absolutely loves it, but don't buy today. Wait for a bit of a pullback.

They raised their capex, but shares plunged. GOOG failed to explain the raise in its conference call, but he was blown away by its 82% growth in its cloud business. A better explanation of the capex would have pushed shares higher.

Is a triple threat with web services, is designing its own chips and has Gemini. This and Amazon are the leaders.

That was an eye-opener. The Mag 7 has peaked, and it could be a multi-year peak due to the negative free cash flow. GOOG is one of the winners in AI. Once the PE declines or AI spending slows, the stock could react better. The street would be very disappointed if only the core businesses of the Mag 7 were generating free cash flow growth and AI was not. It's tough to look through AI spend and invest the Mag 7 which remain great companies, but now face the biggest risk in years.

It reported after the bell a huge earnings beat, a revenue beat, cloud beat, though the Google Search division was a tad light and most importantly free cash low was negative, a big miss, which is why shares are moving lower after hours. More of this story will follow, though.

He trimmed a little early this year, but likes it. Their relationship with the customer is strong across its platform. Secondly, growth is remarkable. Also, the valuation is reasonable. Their AI model is not the best, but it's competitive. Can you keep your eyeballs on a Google product? Yes. Gemini is integrated in their search, so that removes the threat to their search.

Is undervalued. He predicts that if Waymo were spun off (its self-driving cars are ahead of Tesla's), it would get a ridiculous valuation, and Alphabet stock would soar.

Their fund has held it for years and years. Gemini models show it'll be a leader in generative AI. Trading 26-27x PE, fairly fully valued. 

Their cloud remains one of the fastest-growing businesses in tech. AI continues to make search better.

They join the Dow on Monday which will give it a brief bounce. Key staff leaving hurt the stock earlier this week. Likes GOOG a lot. 

Fears that AI would eat its lunch. Harder for Anthropic to monetize a new tool than for GOOG to take AI and apply it to a business model that it already monetizes. Muscle memory of the populace gravitates to GOOG to find information. Probably thrives in the new AI world, until something more disruptive comes along.

A Hold for him today instead of a Buy, just on valuation (~30x PE). Very robust growth outlook. To add, wait for a bit of a pullback -- the potential for valuation upside gives you less risk, and you can't expect multiple expansion from current price point.