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Gilead Sciences Inc.GILDCOMMENTSep 12, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 15, 2026. Market Open.
In past years, biotech was the safe trade, but this year risk is back, so these stocks have fallen out of favour. Also, there are so many drugs in trials now and big pharma needs new product. She's looking at Gilead and Moderna, because they have low PEs and alot of drugs in development. However, the overall sector is risky.
About 50% of its franchises are based in hepatitis C. You really have to be careful, because this franchise is slowing. They have 2 prospective years of negative earnings growth, which is a huge headwind. Value this on its long-term cash flows. There are 2 things to consider. 1.) How sustainable are they. If that continues, then you have a leg to stand on. 2.) If you have falling rates, that is good for valuation. The problem is, we are probably going to have flat to rising rates, and Pharma M&A is a bit of a dice roll. He doesn’t buy into the story, and would prefer the Spdr S&P Biotech ETF (XBI-N). You could be a little more conservative using the iShares D J Medical Devices ETF (IHI-N).