Opinions
Stockchase Insights
Fortis Inc.
FTS-T
BUY
Oct 23, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Analysts tend to be conservative. It is a pretty solid, high-paying job, and they do not get much benefit from 'sticking their neck out' versus the crowd. Target prices and recommendations tend to be similar. They do not get fired if 'everyone else was also wrong' but if they are an outlier then their calls are more closely scrutinized. AT 19X earnings FTS still looks OK to us, and its positive momentum in a bad market we think is a strong sign as well. But, it is up 28% in a year, and we would not expect those types of returns on a regular basis. It is still a relatively slow-growth utility company.
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Everybody's been crowding into what's been working. Bond proxy, not too challenged by Trump tariffs. Great long-term compounder. Raises dividend every year, by ~5%. Good long-term growth. Q4 beat. Steady player, without all the ups and downs.
One knock is that it's only growing 5%, but trading at 17x. So, no, don't buy at this level. In the space it's time to look at AQN again (believe it or not), GEI, or ALA.
Great company. Has raised dividend forever, but dividend growth is slow at only 3-4% a year. Fine for the dividend. But for dividend and growth he'd lean toward a large-cap resource producer generating tons of cash, which would give much better inflation protection. Or go with a bank (such as JPM or a Canadian bank).
Good long-term hold for income. Regulated natural gas and electric utility. Over 1/2 of revenues come from the US. Diversified. Very defensible and visible cashflow stream because it's regulated. Increased dividend for 51 consecutive years. In regions where data centres are being built. Yield is 3.81%.
(Analysts’ price target is $67.50)
It is true that lower rates should otherwise be a tailwind for businesses with leveraged balance sheets. In fact, FTS has recovered meaningfully to reach 52-week highs recently. We think for a conservative name like FTS its performance is quite good. The upside potential from the interest rate tailwinds may not be as attractive as it used to be, but we think FTS is still a high-quality dividend payer. We think FTS can do well from here for shareholders with a potential total return of around 10% annualized return over the long-term.
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