Opinions
Paul Harris, CFA
Fiera Capital Corp
FSZ-T
COMMENT
Sep 11, 2023
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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The $4B withdrawal is fairly serious, though FSZ does have $166B, and it continues a trend of some assets leaving the company (including money that earlier flowed out to Pinestone following Nadim Risk's departure in 2021). On the plus side, it is coming at a time of good markets, and FSZ has seen some positive momentum recently (we have comments on its quarter posted). The 10% drawdown seems a bit much on the news, but any large $$ exit is never good for sentiment. But the drop may have been partly profit-taking as well, as shares have been on a roll prior to this event.
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EPS of 24c beat estimates of 19c; revenue of $162.9M missed estimates of $166M. Revenue is still declining, 1.1%, despite big market gains this year. But assets under management did rise 1%. EBITDA rose 0.9% and did beat estimates. There is good leverage on earnings with cost control. Assets seem to have stabilized, which was a big concern earlier. The stock is very cheap and the yield is still 6.4%, despite the 50% dividend cut. Still, it is hard to get too excited here. It has been a harsh value trap in the past. EPS is expected to surge this year but then only rise about 5% in 2026. The quarter was an improvement but we would like to see some further consistency here.
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It is in the field of asset management and manages $164 billion in assets. It has grown by acquisition in the last while but the stock price is too low now for them to use it as currency for more acquisitions. It needs to be bigger in this type of business and there are better places to be.