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Fiera Capital Corp
FSZ-T
HOLD
Nov 11, 2024
$9.700
Stock price when the opinion was issued
Financial Services
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BUY
Dividend is safe. Dividend has grown about 13% compounded over the last decade. Size and cadence of dividend has slowed. Company is surviving and thriving, due to management. Earnings growing consistently. Good acquirers. Has a bit of beta, so a good play in this market. Cheap at 8x earnings.
Financial Services
WEAK BUY
Really likes the investment management sector. It should be pretty good business in a time of a decent market and reflation. Great company. Decelerating revenue growth. Relative underperformer. Dividend is attractive at 8%. When a group gets into gear, you want to look at the leaders. He owns BX, CIX, BLK, IGM, and POW. You could also look at the IAI ETF.
Financial Services
BUY
Unusually high dividend should get your spidey senses tingling. Market doesn't believe dividend is sustainable, but he does and thinks it will grow slowly over time. Unique asset manager in that they've created some growth. Strong leadership. Dividend is compelling, doesn't foresee huge capital appreciation. Comfortable buying for income.
Financial Services
COMMENT
FSZ vs. ZWU Both pay around an 8% dividend, which at that level it's probably not pure dividend you're getting on a long-term basis. About 6.5% is the limit for a sustainable dividend level. Plus, you get worries about the future of hydrocarbon demand. He himself doesn't see this, but it's a scenario to consider. Both FSZ and ZWU, you're getting some of your capital back to fund their dividends--this is not sustainable. ZWU has underperformed the equal-weight bank ETF since inception. So, the covered call portion isn't adding value, but is an additional-fee generator. He's rather buy the underlying stocks. Fiera has done a ton of purchases, not all of them cheap or good. Their wealth management business has been positive in the last 18 months, but you risk a market correction and a major re-pricing of assets, more so than any Canadian bank.
Financial Services
COMMENT
It is in the field of asset management and manages $164 billion in assets. It has grown by acquisition in the last while but the stock price is too low now for them to use it as currency for more acquisitions. It needs to be bigger in this type of business and there are better places to be.
Financial Services
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The $4B withdrawal is fairly serious, though FSZ does have $166B, and it continues a trend of some assets leaving the company (including money that earlier flowed out to Pinestone following Nadim Risk's departure in 2021). On the plus side, it is coming at a time of good markets, and FSZ has seen some positive momentum recently (we have comments on its quarter posted). The 10% drawdown seems a bit much on the news, but any large $$ exit is never good for sentiment. But the drop may have been partly profit-taking as well, as shares have been on a roll prior to this event.
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