Opinions

Michael Smedley First National Financial FN-T PAST TOP PICK May 26, 2017

(A Top Pick April 28/16. Down 1%.) At a higher level than Home Capital (HCG-T), but on a par with Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T), which is at the top of the pile. The latest quarter was a tiny bit mixed, but that is probably your opportunity to Buy.

Michael Smedley

Owned

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$25.160

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Financial Services

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COMMENT

This is a different mortgage player. They basically raise their own money and put that into mortgages. They service mortgages, as opposed to using capital as an intermediary to earn a spread. This has been a well-run company. Their software is 2^nd to none. It got caught in the downdraft.

BUY

Buy on the dip or wait? They were seriously looking at this stock, but never bought it. A descending triangle, technically you want to buy on the breakout, and it just recently broke out. So long as its hold above $27-26 it's probably a buy. 6% yield.

HOLD

Follows it. Well-managed with a decent yield. Very conservative managers. But what happens when the two big shareholders retire or move on? Hold on.

COMMENT

Undervalued? Familiar with it but doesn't own it. Anytime you're looking at the financial players especially if they are Canada-centric you want to understand if there is any mortage business and what that book looks like. He is concerned about Canadian household debt now that we see rates start to rise. The discount that you see often in the smaller financial centers in Canada is not that the market is not aware of it or that it's a bargain, it's more to speak to the fact that there is risk in being concentrated on the Canadian economy.

HOLD

They have raised dividends, which signals confidence by management – who also owns the majority of shares. It has a service advantage and get loan turnarounds quickly. Brokers have technological advantages and there is reoccurring capital. Once a mortgage is closed it becomes highly visible and it shows the cash flow path.

HOLD

Alternative mortgage companies have been under pressure lately. Longer term, FN-T has done a good job and is a well-managed company. Management owns a large stake too. Eventually he thinks it could become attractive to other players and could be an acquisition target. It has been a consistent dividend grower. Yield 5.9%

BUY

It’s slowly moved up from $28. The pullback is a natural phenomenon after the pop. Lots of volume. He would buy it here.

BUY

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

We will mark questions 'private' if a similar question has already been posted or if there are too many symbols within one question. FN EPS of 72c beat estimates of 67c. Revenue of $503M was nicely ahead of estimates and rose 21%. Total assets rose 5% to ~$46B. The company expects lower mortgage orginations as recent rate hikes continue to impact demand. The stock is very cheap, with a good dividend, and should do better as interest rates ease. We would consider it a buy for income investors, and it is one of our favourites within the mortgage sector.
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BUY

Good company, but dividend too high. Mature company. Better growth companies out there. Well run, and stable business. Lots of mortgage exposure but overall a good business.

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Michael Smedley First National Financial FN-T PAST TOP PICK May 26, 2017

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