First Quantum Minerals (FM.TO)

A really volatile stock. Sold his holdings in July. The one thing that is interesting is the cluster of lows, which is where buyers come in. At this point it would be good for a trade. If you do, put your stop in at about $15-$15.60.

Base metals tend to do well from the 3^rd week in January right into April. However, we may see that bottom happening earlier, and it could start taking place in the next few weeks. Looking at the chart, we are back to the levels we where at in 2013, which is a positive sign. The chart this year shows it as being all downhill, and we haven’t seen a turnaround yet. We have a strong day that is happening right now, and that can happen over the next couple of weeks. Now is not a bad time to be looking to get into the sector but wait for it to pick up just a little bit more.

Commodities have rolled over fairly significantly. He would draw a big analogy to what is happening in the oil markets and what is happening in the commodity (iron ore and copper) markets generally. What we are seeing is that the Saudis are effectively trying to dry up market share by driving out the lowest cost producers. The challenge with that is that the turn-on/turn off costs is not necessarily large. In the mining space, the big companies are doing exactly the same thing by trying to drive marginal share producers out of the market. That will mean miners get turned off. When mines get turned off, it could be a $300-$400 million capX start-up program and you will likely see a supply/contraction longer term. We are a little early, but he would favour the big caps. This one is an interesting one and the balance sheet seems reasonable, but is a little more risky because its balance sheet is not as strong. (See Top Picks)

Probably one of the better quality metal plays. If you look at a chart on metals in general, it has been pretty soft for the last few years. This is a pretty good quality company. He would prefer to see a bounce off its support level, and then would consider owning it.

Metals and minerals may have a really between now and end of year, but the trend is lower and under performance. The cycle is done for them. The last marginal dollar of demand is slowing. Stay away from the sector.

Has been avoiding base metals for a while. China PMI's just came out and showed another slow down, so we are in a level of some contraction. There are currency issues that are occurring. He would shy away from base metals until there is some clear direction as to where the economy is.

Sold his holdings at about $22 when it broke down through a resistance point. Not a stock for the faint of heart. You want to see this hold support at its $16 level. It is trying to find a bottom. He would rather pay something like $19.

A copper company. The charts are unbelievable here. He would prefer CS-T or LUN-T.

(Top Pick Oct 2/13, Up 19%) He thought the base metals were under loved at the time. It jumped out of the gate and now the spread from materials in general is widening. Short term we still have this upward channel.

It doesn’t look like China’s growth is falling off the table, but has actually stabilized. If that’s the case, they are going to need a lot more copper. As the US economy expands, and we see construction increasing in the US, copper is going to be needed. If you believe inflation and growth are going to pick up, this should be on your radar screen. There are a lot of moving parts and there are a lot of different countries. Things can get scary when you are exposed to that.

Was a real fan of Inmet before this company acquired them. Everything they were doing seemed to make so much more sense than what Inmet was doing. Stock hasn’t moved as much is he wanted it to. Doesn’t think there is a lot of room for copper.

(Top Pick Mar 5/13, Up 19.15%) Just sold it. He is moving to neutral weight in the sector for April. He made the money he was looking to make.

(A Top Pick Jan 15/13. Down 2.24%.) Got out of this late October because he had felt it had had a bit of its run and he was starting to see some weaker data out of China. Also, feels valuation is fairly fully valued.

(Top Pick Mar 5/13, Up 10.78%) He just sold it last week. He would love to buy it in the low teens. It is going to start announcing the project in Panama. You have years and billions in capital ahead of you. He is going to wait for a buying opportunity.

Base metals levered name. All these names have moved up quite aggressively. Shortly you will get an update on a project they bought from Inmet. He is weary of their ability to execute on this.