Fairborne Energy Trust (FEL.UN.TO) Buy, Sell…

Fairborne Energy Trust (FEL.UN.TO)

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 16/11. Down 22.32%.) Wet spring so breakup was extended so they missed on their Q2 numbers. Sold his holdings because he saw better opportunities elsewhere.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 16/11. Down 9.92%.)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 13/10. Up 3.37%.) 75%-80% gas. Looking for $7 on it. Good acquisition candidate.

BUY

Just sold some of their projects for $125 million so they can pay down a lot of debt. He likes companies with clean balance sheets. This could do well from here.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It was not a very successful trust. Now it is a corp. and is acting more like a junior oil and gas. It is far more successful now. He thought Nat Gas prices would creep up but they didn’t as much as he expected.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 13/10. Up 0.18%.) Starting to pick up some steam in the last couple of weeks with some news that it had. Still a Buy.

TOP PICK

Intermediate oil/natural gas liquids player in the Peace River/Arch area in Alberta. Missed street expectations in the past but is now starting to focus on higher returns natural gas plays. Looking for significant upside. Very cheap.

BUY

Somewhat leveraged way to play natural gas. Could rally in the next couple of months – you could trade it.

TOP PICK

Natural gas producer that is in the penalty box. About 15,000 BOE's a day. Represents very good upside from a valuation point of view. Calling for gas at $7 which would make this a double. Possible take-out.

TOP PICK

Best risk/reward potential in the mid-cap gas universe. Cheap at $40,000 per flowing barrel. If they can garner their multiples and grow production, the stock could be $7.

BUY

Looking at this one closely. Was a trust and converted to a non-dividend paying E&P company. Has been in the “show me” penalty box for while. If they can hit exit guidance and demonstrate success in the Wilrich (Alberta) play there’ll be a gradual re-rating.

DON'T BUY

Has been disappointing over time. Management has made promises that they couldn't keep. If you want exposure to natural gas, there are better ways to do it.

SELL

Large under performer over the last several years. Struggled to grow production. Nordig (?) play didn't work out and they had to reduce reserves that they had attributed to it. Dead money.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

At $3.50, it's not bad value but not one of his favourites. Okay for a long-term purchase.

HOLD

Cash flows have been relatively strong. It’s hard to see what the catalyst is for the next leg up. They paid down debt in anticipation of acquisitions that might take place down the road.

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Fairborne Energy Trust (FEL.UN.TO)