Stockchase Opinions

Andrew Cook Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold FCX-N BUY Dec 06, 2011

Around the current price level would be a reasonable time to get in. He noticed that a lot of commodity stocks were underperforming the commodity but this one started to outperform copper in mid-October.
$40.540

Stock price when the opinion was issued

non-base metal mining
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for managing and tracking your investments.

You might be interested:

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 08/24, Up 3%)

Bought, in part, on prospects of a greener world. Came down on weaker China and on the (much less green) Trump victory. Didn't execute as well in Q4, softer sales, higher capex. Copper's a good long-term bet. Trades at 15x with 19% growth.

Still likes it. USA really needs to grow its way out of this deficit.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 13/24, Down 7%)

China's comeback didn't happen in the past year while EV adoption has slowed, but will still happen. The copper spot price is up 25% this quarter. So, FCX will have a great quarter, given their link to that price, but the market won't anticipate that due to fear of tariffs and the impact on copper prices. Will copper be a protected mineral? Tariffs on foreign/Chinese copper? Don't know yet, but long term the secular tailwinds are intact. Copper usage will double over 7 years.

DON'T BUY

It's fallen off a cliff since tariffs. Watch FCX as an economic indicator, but would not buy this. At best, this is a short-term trade, but he's a long-term investor.

TOP PICK

Taken a big hit. Divergence between copper prices and company's performance. Generational opportunity to buy a company like this. Secularly, we're using more and more copper for electrification. Analysts see 7-8% compound  growth rate in copper usage over next 10 years. Yield is 2.01%.

The negative is that 50% of copper is used by China. If tariffs don't get sorted out, something's gotta give. It's not easy to bring mines on quickly. Good risk/reward at current levels.

(Analysts’ price target is $46.78)
BUY

Obvious way to play the copper sector. Copper and gold. Significant breakout in the price of copper. Great dividend growth stock over time. Big cash generator.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 17/24, Down 17%)

Copper stocks are very volatile. He uses stop losses on all positions, so ended up coming out of this one. Re-entered about 2 months ago. Should generate a lot of cash longer term. Significant dividend grower. Should actually benefit from tariffs.

BUY

If copper stays at $5, they should produce $9 billion in free cash flow or 15% free cash flow yield.

HOLD

Q2 beat. She's still bullish on gold and copper. More cyclical than large-cap tech or utilities. Strong US operations. A bit volatile for her, but still some upside of about 8% to price target from here.

COMMENT

If copper stays above $5, FCX will see $9 billion in free cash flow. Shares are not cheap at 20x PE, but earnings growth is a huge 20-40%. Fundamentally, shares should be much higher.

TRADE

It has a hard time breaking $45-46. It's now at the upper end of its trading range, so sell calls. Just reported nice numbers.