Stockchase Opinions

Mohsin Bashir Dryships DRYS-Q COMMENT Aug 12, 2011

Has a 50-50 split between the dry bulk industry and oil transportation. Have a younger drilling fleet for ultra deep water drilling. Company is very highly levered. Have $2 billion worth of vessels that they need to pay for.
$2.720

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Transportation
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DON'T BUY
In the business of moving dry bulk cargo. The Baltic index is showing weakness so this is not a good time to own this company.
DON'T BUY
Exposure to global market, a better play than just the US market, but was close to bankruptcy and the board got nervous and started issuing new issue after new issue. Not completely out of the woods yet and wouldn't be surprised if they issued more stock. Would prefer something like Frontline (FRO-N) with a 9.5% yield or Ship Finance (SFL-N) with a 7.4% yield.
DON'T BUY
Wouldn't play global expansion through a company like this. Speculative and you take on far too much company specific risks. Would prefer a more direct commodity play. (See Top Picks.)
SELL
Horse is a little out of the barn on this one. Has been an under performer. Trouble is all kinds of new capacity getting built so there is a glut of capacity. A lot of the contracts they signed earlier are going to start to roll off.
DON'T BUY
Bulk dry shipper. Very volatile. There is a lot more capacity (more vessels) out there. Balance sheet is very levered. In this area, he would prefer Diana (DSX-N) but he would look elsewhere for a proxy to global growth.
COMMENT

Chart shows a pretty substantial base and is currently attempting to break out. If it breaks up through $2.40 and has volume, it could be very positive.

COMMENT

An excellent sector to be looking at. A lot have been beaten down. This one has recently had a tremendous run. A lot of these companies do well when the economy does well. He doesn’t know the financials on this one that well, but one that he does follow more closely is Nordic American Tankers (NAT-N). The CEO keeps saying how well they are doing and yet it is not reflected in the stock price. But they also have a huge debt load, which scares him.

SELL ON STRENGTH

An interesting story. Recalls seeing it take off like a rocket. It may be time to take a profit on it. prefers SEA-N, an ETF.

DON'T BUY

This is a sector that is dramatically out of favour. He keeps looking at them, and then he looks at the debt loads, the debt load on almost every one of these companies is horrible. A lot of them have also been listed for less than 10 years. So he wouldn’t buy because of those reasons. This one really doesn’t appeal to him.