Stock price when the opinion was issued
They reported a terrific quarter: theme parks much better than expected, movies fantastic, TV and sports positive. But there was one line in the report that said that when they raised prices they lost 1% of subscribers in Q4. So, shares fell 2.44% today. He expects people will forget why they sold Disney and its shares will be higher.
Lumpy road to recovery, but Iger's making progress. Streaming is becoming profitable. Content offerings are turning around, with a huge library. Parks have slowed, investment has increased; yet still a destination vacation for many across the world. Good growth in cruise ships. Undemanding multiple under 20x PE. She's being patient; upside from here.
A lot going on here in recent years, but just a few years ago, the stock was nearly doubled, based on hopes for Disney+. That said, they will be a long-term winner in streaming; their content is strong around the world. Also, their theme parks keep selling, and are expanding internationally. Probably we've seen peak Marvel, but Disney holds a deep catalogue of content, including Star Wars. If they can sort out management and make streaming profitable, they should return to 20% margins.
Part of the wonder has been ESPN and theme parks. It is very free cash flow generative. A number of the parks they are in are having the cap-X rolling off, so it gives them capital to invest. It is fairly fully valued so be weary of buying at these levels.