50% off Premium Yearly
Delphi Energy Corp.DEE.TOHOLDJul 25, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of May 21, 2020. Market Open.
A Montney producer that has a deal with Repsol, where they got money from the government to help pay down debt. Now they are drilling together in some of the best lands that they have, in the Western part of the play. The wells that are coming out are fabulous. The problem is, they have 4 or 5 wells that they should be bringing on stream in Q2, but as a smaller company, getting access to the frac units is difficult. The stock is getting very cheap. He has a conservative BV of $.98. The balance sheet is in much better shape with $153 million in equity. The bank debt is $25 million and they have a million dollars in senior secured notes. They have a history of being a very good hedger. The low in 2016 was $0.22 and the high was $1.79 this year. If this gets below $1, he thinks it is a table pounding buy. This could get taken over because of their land position.
A small-cap that has been around for 12-14 years. They have a good quality asset with improving well results. They have an exploration well that is academically intriguing. Has always been challenged with such a small company drilling such expensive wells where the concentration risk is so high. The CEO left unexpectedly which makes him a little nervous. Also, the valuation is not compelling enough for him to get excited.
(A Top Pick April 6/15. Down 32.4%.) Natural gas producer in the Montney. Very well-run. Likes the story longer-term. This could be a $3-$4 stock again, but the problem is low natural gas prices. They are managing themselves frugally for these tough times. A name that you want to buy on weakness. If they got back down in the low $1 range, it would be a great buy for small-cap investors.
Not the top 1, 2 or 3 in natural gas names, but if you own he thinks you will do fine. They put out an operations update with one really good well. Also, had another that was crappy in terms of liquids yield. He is focusing more on the crummy well because of the variability in geology. Have been deleveraging given the ramp in their cash flows. Part of that was contingent on high natural gas prices, and as gas has sold off, he thinks this thesis is somewhat challenged. Have an offer for their Wapiti asset which would serve to deleverage the balance sheet. There are names he likes better, but sentiment has overshot to the negative.