Deere & Co. (DE)

Looking back 2-3 years, bounces back and forth between $340 and $430. Recent downswing from April-July, finding support around $350. However, started to bounce over last 2 days, encouraging. First resistance $410-415, next at $430-435, with the $400 round number in between. Trading upswing within a long-term trading range.

Not exactly undervalued. Volatile. Range-bound until recent uptrend. Impacted by commodity prices and interest rates. Cost-cutting, lowering forecasts. Business remains under pressure. 11% upside to street's target. Wait to see where the stock's going. Yield of 1.5%.

One of top ideas. Great company that underpins industrial economy. Excellent chart that is representing a good buying opportunity. Would buy this stock. 

He sold in July. Crop prices falling, input costs were sticky, farmers' margins started to get squeezed. Interest rates were high, with no clear idea when they'd start to drop.

Has owned this for a while, but the agriculture cycle is over. He's held onto this because it's a different ag company. That said, the ag background is highly bearish.

Why is this a battleground stock? They ripped the band-aid off their last report and set future earnings at a proper level, but see a low bar in their forecast: 12x forward PE. Crop prices have been weak for a while, but that's the best time to buy Deere.

He sold it because he expects weak global growth in the first half of 2024 which will impact the international industrial names. He's getting more defensive in industrials and he sold Deere on strength last month.

The momentum is broken. Something has changed in the past year: maybe the agricultural cycle has deteriorated, replacing tractors has declined given high interest rates maybe. The balance sheet... It checks all the boxes. Good fundamentals. But if stocks remain like this at the end of January, he will sell in his quarterly rebalancing.

They reported a beat but lowered guidance. This remains a good company that is simply being cautious, which may be warranted in the face of the lag effect of Fed comments, but will be short-lived. They have set a bar they can easily clear. A buy.

It's been challenging for him. The agriculture and commodity cycle is in trouble due to weakening demand. Perilous.

Agriculture prices are much lower than last year, so farmers are no longer spending a lot of money in capex. But Deere is also in construction.

Great long-term investment, because long term we gotta feed the world. Buy some and wait.