Paul Harris, CFACenovus EnergyCVE.TODON'T BUYMar 06, 2026

All energy stocks have come off because we've had (cynically) a "peace scare" in the Middle East. Energy sector will continue to be robust.

Also likes, and owns, TOU.

Lightened up a bit after the runup. Price of oil will come down, but the bigger question is where will it level out? A hard one to gauge, but his sense is that it will take longer to get supplies out. (He's not a big believer in the pending agreement yet.)

In general oil isn't going back to where it was, and these stocks will be pretty good buys. One of the best oil-levered plays. MEG purchase was brilliant.

He trimmed a bit. Firing on all cylinders. Refinery margins have been astronomical compared to recent history. Still quite a bit of upside. Still undervalued, even if oil stays here or goes a bit lower.

Set-it-and-forget-it way to get exposure to bullish oil thesis. New floor for oil is $80, and higher in years to come. Downstream exposure (refineries), with margins at record highs. Top decile oilsands assets. Another record quarter. Really likes management. Yield is 2.09%.

Higher energy prices should trickle down to its bottom line. Cashflow should increase, should start to pay down debt. MEG is a great asset. Lots of respect for it.

Discount to peers, mostly because of the MEG acquisition. Now has high debt load, and that will take a bit of time to work through. Long term, MEG will add synergies and volumes. OK buying here, but know that focus probably on reducing debt rather than on buybacks/dividends.

Extremely well run. He wouldn't hesitate to have a position in it.

He owns SU instead.

The war will eventually end and oil will resume flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the WTI-Brent oil spread will widen. Cenovus has very long-life assets in the Tar Sands, but also benefit huge from the refinery crack spreads.

Higher risk profile. Has come a long way in how assets are managed. An opportunity today if you believe energy prices will remain strong for a prolonged time. Be a bit careful. Dollar-cost average carefully.

CNQ tends to be his go-to producer in the Canadian energy patch.

At maximum weight in his fund. Most obvious Canadian large-cap name to own right now. Security of supply is the most paramount issue right now. Thinks it's a $50 stock at $80 oil; his own in-house estimates model $79.

Benefits from best rock in Canada and massive expansions in US refining.

A name to consider in energy.

A great chart. From 2022-2024, this was a swing trade, within a consistent range. Then, it fell in early 2025, but then moved up, past resistance at $28 and kept going up. This can go higher as long as it wants.

EPS of 50c surpassed the 42c estimate, and revenue of $10.88B beat forecasts by 2%. Results demonstrated Cenovus' substantial expansion through its MEG Energy acquisition, with record upstream production of 917,900 barrels per day in Q4 providing crucial volume protection against softer crude prices. Despite a recent geopolitical boost to oil prices, WTI has averaged $61.40 in Q1, down roughly 14% from Q1 2025. With stable to growing production, operating cash flow will likely face pressure in Q1 and throughout the year without a sustained price rebound. Shareholder returns should remain a focus, but buybacks are expected to moderate from last year's approximately C$2 billion as Cenovus manages MEG-related debt and works toward its C$4 billion net debt target. They remain fully comfortable with the position, though commodity price direction will be critical. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Makes sense to him. Deep Basin assets were picked up years ago, so this would be a chance to monetize those, pay down debt, and accelerate ROC to shareholders. Bay Street would probably view this very favourably. Shareholders want capital returned via share buybacks, and it's at a bit of a competitive disadvantage to companies like SU that return more capital to shareholders.

Believes reported headline number of $3B is light. Could be closer to $4B in asset sales.