Chartwell Retirement Residences (CSH.UN.TO)

Extendicare (EXE-T) or Chartwell seniors housing (CSH.UN-T)? Both are in the retirement space. This has been around for a long time. They had US operations, but sold them. Very focused on different levels of care, independent, semi-independent and full care. If he had to buy one, it would be this one.

Chartwell (CSH.UN-T) Extendicare (EXE-T) or Sienna (SIA-T)? Of these 3, this is the one he owns and continues to like. It is seniors housing, and looking at the demographic tailwind, it should support all 3 of these, but this one more than any. The number of people over 65 are going to double within the next 25 years. This is the largest operator.

A fantastic company. Not only a real estate company, but also an operating company. This is less focused on the noise of the real estate sector, which may or may not happen as interest rates move, but focused on that large demographic wave of seniors who need and deserve the best care.

Has an issue with REITs in general. He doesn’t see much growth. A lot of people really love this one. It is the positioning and the growth in their health care facilities. He gets that, but his problem is the valuation. It is basically trading at 16X enterprise value to EBITDA. You are paying an extremely high multiple, which is a bit at risk if interest rates start to go higher. He wouldn’t be buying any REITs.

The stock has done quite well, and has recently pulled back because of the scare of interest rate sensitivity. While this is classified as a healthcare name, it does have a yield of just under 4%. It is the largest operator in Canada. Some money has come out of this space as a whole. She likes the seniors housing industry. Has a target price of $16, plus the yield. (Analysts’ price target is $16.18.)

As a longer-term stock with a nice dividend and growth profile, this certainly meets his parameters. There is more and more population that is aging, and will end up in these assisted-living and long-term care facilities that they run. They’ve been very good at both building new facilities and acquiring them. They also know the right time to sell.

NWH.UN-T vs. CSH.UN-T. CSH.UN-T has decent growth because of their demographics. His problem with REITs is that they were one of the biggest beneficiaries of the low interest rate. He looks at the cap rate and turns it into an enterprise value and you are paying 15-16 times operating cash flow. You should pay that for a high tech company, not a healthcare company. You are paying out 80-90% of the income as yield. You can’t do that in other sectors. Where is the money to invest in the business – how does it grow? He went short the REITs about two months ago. He does not like either one, but if forced to choose it would be CSH.UN-T.

(Market Call Minute.) Thinks this is pretty decent here, and he would probably be inclined to accumulate this.

This is for the aging consumer. We are all getting older. Demographics show that the over 65 population is about 16% of our overall population. It is forecast that by 2035 it is going to be over 25%. There will be increased demand for assisted care. This company pulled out of the US last year and reinvested back into Canada. They are very well positioned. Dividend yield of 3.78%.

(A Top Pick Sept 11/15. Up 30.61%.) Likes this a lot. An operator of retirement residences. The superior operator of all the public entities. This has run really well, so wouldn’t be adding more at this level. If anything, you may want to consider trimming.

(Market Call Minute.)

(A Top Pick May 30/16. Up 7.08%.) This is a defensive stock.

Likes the theme on this. This should continue to do well. It is going to be very sensitive to interest rates, so keep that in mind. If rates were to go up, you would see a pretty material pullback. He does not expect that rates will be going up in Canada.

The number of people over 65 is going to double over the next 25 years. In 3 of the last 4 years, demand has exceeded supply. They have done a great job of sourcing and building their margins. Wait for a pullback.

The REIT space has run up so much that when bad news comes out, these are going to get hammered quickly. You have to ask yourself if you are there for the yield or the share price appreciation. If you are there for the yield, you can get a similar one in other names which will not be as sensitive. If you are there for share price appreciation, these have run up so much. He would be very cautious.