Chartwell Retirement Residences (CSH.UN.TO)

The market is struggling to decide what this is: a yield, a REIT, a cash flow play? The demographics are in their favour, but does this drive CSH enough or does it need an acquisition? He doesn't know. Good dividend, but he hasn't looked at CSH deeply.

Still likes it and has been buying it during this pullback. REITs have been pressured by rising rates, but she likes the seniors housing space. Managed well and pays an attractive 4.2% yield. A good long-term hold and would buy it here.

Bad news is costs elevated, more competitive pressure in retirement homes. Pricey. Balance sheet not perfect. Good news is decent growth rate, and good long-term area to be in. But much better value elsewhere. He’s trimmed to move into other areas. You have to buy things at the right price.

This is the largest provider of senior communities. The demographics play in their favor. The 75-year-plus population is expected to double in the 20 next years, growing 3 to 4 times faster than the general population. Penetration of the seniors market is still low in Canada, so there is a lot of room for growth. 85% of their homes are private-pay rather than relying on government funding. Yield 4%. (Analysts’ price target is $16.75)

Extendicare (EXE-T) or Chartwell Retirement (CSH-U-T). Both are good long term holds. He prefers and owns Chartwell. Will see continued growth in this sector. There were shorts on Extendicare and the rebound lately has been a short covering.

PE ratio this high is a red flag on the surface. He’d be reluctant to own the high PE multiple in a sector where other companies have lower multiples. Own another one, or own a few to diversify. Can’t tell if high PE due to price too high, or a one-time hit to earnings.

Demographically, it’s a theme, but you have to ignore this. Had stayed away because of litigation in the US. Missed earnings. Difficult business because of labour costs, regulations. Other investments make sense and aren’t as complicated. Analysts have downgraded. Trades at an 18x multiple. If you’re going to buy, have to buy it washed out. (Analysts’ price target is $16.65.)

(A Top Pick July 12, 2017. Up 5%). She continues to like Chartwell. This is the leader in seniors housing in Canada. She likes the demographic trend. Chartwell provides the full spectrum of living and care arrangements, including long-term care, which is fully regulated and which constitutes 15% of their business. Occupancy is very high. They grow organically and by acquisition. She likes the management. Rising interest rates have created a headwind for the stock price, but it offers an adequate yield.

This trend in demographics is going to benefit this company. He has not bought it and there is a better situation elsewhere in the REIT space. We don't have enough nursing home beds. The issue they have is the land grab in the neighborhoods where people want to move from. This is people moving from homes they own into facilities they rent. He has TCN-T as it is a slightly better investment.

What healthcare stock to buy? In Canada, he likes Chartwell, in the U.S, Merck (MRK-N), and in Europe, Novo Nordisk.

Have held it for a number of years and continue to like it. Would be buyers at these levels below $15. Demographics favour this industry. Most of their revenue comes from private pay, not government. Offer all levels of care -- long term, assisted living, independent living. Strong and experienced management team. Good organic growth plus acquisitions. Company got out of the US; feel they have enough opportunities for growth in Canada. Yield about 4%.

Demographics work in their favour: everyone is getting older so there'll be more demand for assisted-care living. Management is good. Offers a dividend near 4% which will be safe and has been increasing slowly over time. This is a long-term hold; she's held it for five years. The recent pull-back is due to rising interest rates. (Analysts' price target $17.00)