Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO) Buy, Sell…

Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)

11.72

-0.04 (0.34%)

as of May 14, 2024, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

1026 watching

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 26/19, Down 42%) Still a Top Pick for him. It is down over 10% today. They are 50% hedged this year at $76 CAD oil prices. They will continue to do share buybacks on asset sales.

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TOP PICK

Its 50% hedged position of $56 oil is a key driver for him. They have $500 million of cash coming in from the sale of infrastructure assets. They plan to use 30% of that to buy back their shares. If you believe in $55 oil, they are trading at 83% of the well values that are currently on stream. It is trading at the lowest valuation metrics he has ever seen in his 17 year career. Yield 1.29% (Analysts’ price target is $7.36)

DON'T BUY

When they cut the dividend the share price was $6, now it is under $4. Now they have a stronger balance sheet, but can not attract capital. There will continue to be ebbs and flows in confidence in this space, so you need to be with those that are stronger. To him, they will not be able to attract capital on changing market conditions.

HOLD

The Corona virus is reeking havoc in the oil markets currently as Chinese oil demand is reportedly down. OPEC believes oil demand will still grow this year by 1 million barrels per day. If oil goes back to $60, the stock will be trading at 2 times cash flow and generate a 17% free cash flow yield. He expects they could continue to buy back shares and pay down debt.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They had a balance sheet issue and began selling assets to pay down debt, including the sale of infrastructure assets. This will reduce debt below $3 billion. Any cash generation will be levered to WTI prices as they are 90% liquids based. A rise in WTI prices will lead to more share buybacks he thinks. At $70 WTI, it traded at $20. His target price is $7. He thinks there are better names out there. Perhaps buy on weakness.

DON'T BUY

It has never been a favorite. The company has grown but the debt position has also. If the sector rallies then it will move but otherwise there is a lot of stock and high debt.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 04/19, Up 37%) He recommended it at a low point last year. Today, it moved well. He strictly trades this stock and is not in it right now. However, he has made 30%-50% trading it in the past. He's getting his feet back into energy but he would prefer other names.

PARTIAL SELL

You can take profits now and re-buy later. WTI oil will likely see weakness. Big resistance at $6, so you can take some profits now. He predicts a general market pullback in January. He predicts a 10-15% pullback in CPG, but he likes the 2002-2021 outlook for CPG and oil.

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WATCH

A lot of the stocks are trading substantially below book values. They are in North Dakota and Southern Saskatchewan. They have been buying back their stocks. The dividend has been cut but the stock has been acting well.

TOP PICK

They have been buying back stock and sold mid-stream assets. It is trading at 18% free cash flow yield. It is 2.7 times enterprise value to cash flow, which is staggering considering multiple compression. They are not as exposed to pipeline bottlenecks as others. (Analysts’ price target is $7.40)

DON'T BUY

He would not buy any E&P companies right now. You need a rally in the commodity price to get people excited. Companies are just paying down debt and buying back stock, but that won't get any attention. Look elsewhere.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 31/18, Up 20%) He still likes it. They did wrong things in the past--issuing alot of equity--but are doing the right things now--share buybacks and selling off assets. These please shareholders, not production growth. CPG just sold its infrastructure assets last month at 7x, but the stock is trading at 3x. The balance sheet is now 2x debt-to-EBITDA.

TOP PICK

They are well-positioned, what he wants an energy company to do. Forget about growing production, but rather get out of residual assets, improving their balance sheet and buying back shares. They're doing the opposite of what they did for years--issuing equity which drowned out valuation. They finally listened to shareholders and have reversed course. Great value at 3x operating cash flow. They just sold off infrastructure assets in Utah at 8x. Free cash flow yield is nearly 20%, which is great value. (Analysts’ price target is $7.40)

BUY

They just announced a sale of mid-stream operations in mid-Saskatchewan. An infrastructure deal will knock the debt down when it closes in Q1. They will continue to be able to pay down debt. His target is $7.50-$8.

HOLD

The new CEO has payed down debt, rationalized assets and bought back stock. They are now monetizing assets at 10 times cash flow when the company is only trading at 2.8 times. All good things. If it traded back to 5 times cash flow, its share price would rise 100%.

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Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)