Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTCOMMENTMar 14, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 09, 2026. Market Open.
World's third-largest retailer. High traffic, repeat business, superior same-store sales growth in high single digits. Likes the recurring membership fees, with ~92% retention rate. Likes the procurement clout and narrow assortment of goods. Pretty good gross margins of 11%, and ~30% ROE.
Seems to trade at a high multiple, and this scares people. But it's compounded at 17-18% since the IPO in 1985. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.64%.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
One of the leaders in the low-cost space. Their margins run at about half of what their competitors do. That model only works if there is high turnover of your products. They have been successful in picking the right products, pricing them and moving them very quickly. The risk is, if you do get into a slowdown, there really isn’t any room to cut prices. They generate about 25% of revenue from membership fees, and with so many members, it is difficult to grow revenue. Membership fees are going up, which is a way to have that side of the business stay strong. Trading at about 29X Price to Earnings. For him, the dividend trajectory growth is not there, and trades too rich for him. Dividend yield of 1.1%.