Opinions
Kash Pashootan
Costco Wholesale Corporation
COST-Q
COMMENT
Mar 14, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Profitability is improving; expanding due to e-commerce growth, Kirkland signature, and ad revenue. Reputable brand. Opens 25-30 stores a year. Adding footprint in China. Likes the stability and steady growth. Performs well even in uncertain markets. Impressive membership renewal rate over 90%, and that recurring revenue is a major strength. Sales are still growing from both price and traffic increases. Yield is 0.51%.
(Analysts’ price target is $1067.36)Managed to combine recurring revenue (membership fees) with traditional retail. Business model is still the best in the retail space. Big push toward lower-cost merchandisers. Second to none in its ability to not only survive, but thrive, in what could be a difficult economic environment. Yield is 0.48%.
(Analysts’ price target is $1063.88)Wonderful business, though not a good valuation (and that's the orange flag). PE ratio is in the 40s if not the 50s, lots of growth already priced in. Even 30x PE is probably a bit rich. Fantastic job increasing cashflow per share. If you own it, hold on (again, from Charlie Munger, "do not interrupt compounding unnecessarily").
Growth is driven by steady cadence of new-store expansion. Good traffic. About 9% compounded rate of sales growth over the last decade. Earnings have grown ~13%. Always looks expensive compared to peers, but that reflects its enduring, sustainable competitive advantage. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.52%.
(Analysts’ price target is $1080.45)
One of the leaders in the low-cost space. Their margins run at about half of what their competitors do. That model only works if there is high turnover of your products. They have been successful in picking the right products, pricing them and moving them very quickly. The risk is, if you do get into a slowdown, there really isn’t any room to cut prices. They generate about 25% of revenue from membership fees, and with so many members, it is difficult to grow revenue. Membership fees are going up, which is a way to have that side of the business stay strong. Trading at about 29X Price to Earnings. For him, the dividend trajectory growth is not there, and trades too rich for him. Dividend yield of 1.1%.