Stockchase Opinions

Jim HuangCanadian Natural RsrcsCNQ.TOPAST TOP PICKJan 30, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 26/18, Down 4%) A lean and mean operation. He believes in it. It comes down to oil prices, which have fallen. But he expects oil to rise in the next 12-18 months and CNQ will benefit.
$35.74

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$63.25

As of May 28, 2026. Market Open.

oilgas
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BUY

Owns in the income growth fund. It is very well run and has a huge reserve base in Alberta. Long term it is fine for lower and higher oil prices.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Short term, what happens to the oil price and in the Middle East is going to kick these stocks around. Likes its low breakeven point. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 27/25, Up 63%)

Still doing all the right things. Benefiting from the unanticipated increase in price of oil. Still not that expensive at 12-13x PE, with 8% FCF yield.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 15/25, Up 62%)

She will own this for the next 30 years. Very bullish. She likes CNQ at $60 oil, so $100 oil today is a bonus. Management is discipline, their Oil Sands are long-life with low decline, and have a strong dividend records. They make money even at low $50 oil. She added more shares recently.

DON'T BUY

Not fond of today. Underperformed. Trades at a premium to SU. Has a fair amount of nat gas as well, and he's not as positive on that.

See his Top Picks.

PARTIAL SELL
A bit rich?

She trimmed on the big runup. Still one of the top O&G producers in Canada. Essential backbone of Canadian energy. Stands out on capital return. Raised dividend again. Compounded annual growth of 20%. Ranks 9/10 on value.

Energy will still be one of the top performers for 2026. If oil pulls back, this name will see some volatility -- great time to take a look at it.

BUY

If you already have oils in your portfolio, don't buy now. If you share his thesis that the Strait will be challenged with only some traffic going through, then we're probably looking at $80-90 oil. Canadian oil companies are at a massive advantage because we're really trying to expand our markets.

For a 5-year horizon, CNQ looks really good. On the nat gas side, he likes TOU and PEY.

BUY

Bit expensive (8x PE) relative to peers (7x PE). Balance sheet in good shape. Q4 was very strong, beat by 7% and 1% on production. Increased dividend by 6.4%. Solid operational performance.

A fair value, meritorious name that really works if oil goes below $50. If oil stays where it is, does really well. If you don't have any oil and with a 5-year horizon, you could buy at this level. Problem with waiting to buy is that you often miss it.

PARTIAL SELL
Small retracement a buying opportunity for long-term investors?

Wouldn't pick it up today (and he owns it). Consistently rises to the top as an oily choice in the Basin. Low decline rate, low extraction cost. 

Stock's way up on higher oil, almost 50% YTD. Higher oil for longer is already baked into the price. It's more of a Sell.

HOLD

Trimmed a bit a few weeks ago (when oil gets that high, you know it might come down). Great company, but an entry point is all about the price of oil. You want to get into these names when they're beaten up and the commodity price is low.

TOP PICK

He'd love to buy more as price of oil continues to fall. Closest thing to a forever asset in Canadian energy. Reserves represent ~36 years of production. ROIC is in 15% range with oil in $60-70 range, while funding costs are $40-ish. Making $$ hand over fist -- going to buybacks, debt reduction, and dividends. 

If any escalation in wars elsewhere (what if China decides to block the Taiwan Strait?), and WTI goes to $100, then its ROIC jumps to mid-20s%. It's time to be in resource commodities. Yield is 4.21%.

(Analysts’ price target is $69.47)
TOP PICK

One of his favourites, one of the best managed anywhere in the world. We're not in a $65 oil price world anymore, more like $80. Potential for natural gas egress expansion off the West Coast. Largest oil producer in Canada, and one of the largest nat gas producers. 

100% of FCF going to be returned to shareholders. 25 straight years of dividend increases. Debt being paid down faster with higher oil price. For new clients, he's taking half positions. If you can get it under $60, you'll be happy. Yield is 3.93%.

(Analysts’ price target is $69.38)
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TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

As members of the US Administration expect a continuation of high energy prices for the foreseeable future, we reiterate CNQ as a TOP PICK.  Shipments thru the Strait of Hormuz remain challenged leaving domestic producers in a good position to see cash flows continue to improve.  CNQ is a low-cost producer, whose cash flow has allowed for debt to be retired and shares bought back, while building cash reserves.  It trades at 20x earnings, 3x book and supports a 25% ROE.  We recommend trailing up the stop (from $55) to $60, looking to achieve $74 -- upside potential of 18%.  Yield 3.6%

(Analysts’ price target is $67.32)
HOLD
CNQ vs. WCP

Is a huge fan of CNQ, but be cautious in energy now. If you own energy, sit tight and hold your gains. Valuations have risen a lot, though may not persist for long. He prefers CNQ. Is a strong compounder and return cash flow to shareholders while they reduce debt. He doesn't know where the price of oil is going.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Canadian or US energy stock?

Can do either. In Canada, he choose CNQ, and EOG in the U.S. CNQ acts like an annuity, requiring massive upfront investment, but cash flows for a long time. EOG has unique assets. But he wouldn't buy energy now. The supply chain problems now won't last forever. You can buy either stock on a pullback.