Stan Wong Canadian Natural Rsrcs CNQ-T DON'T BUY Sep 04, 2025

All the oil producers are stuck in no-man's land. He's out of oil stocks. Doesn't mind a sideways pattern, but this looks to be in a gentle downtrend. Doesn't know he'd buy it yet, wait for the downtrend to end.

About 70% oil, 30% natural gas. That gives you diversification. Trades ~12x PE. Good value, and will continue to grow. Buying back a lot of stock. Exporting energy to Europe will benefit any NA energy producer. Yield is 5.38%.

Unless there's a big recession that reduces demand, doesn't see oil getting too far below $60 (which is where it makes money). A lot of the US producers can't make $$ much below $60, so that provides a floor. So he's not too worried about the price of oil.

Best-run company in Calgary since about 1990. Slow and steady wins the race, they don't make mistakes. The name to own when energy does well. Right now the energy market's tough, but will get better slowly over time. Nice dividend, which increases every year. You could start accumulating. Solid play.

A core Canadian energy name, along with SU. Still, energy space has been very tough. Prices have been low, OPEC producing more than expected. Regulatory environment in Canada is challenged, as is the macro global economy. Great yield of 5.66% and should remain steady. Technicals don't look great. 200-day MA falling, and price is below.

He thinks crude oil will come back up. CNQ has an excellent management team and a diversity of production assets along with a huge portfolio of assets. Production is good and Capex is under control. It is at a compelling valuation and has the lowest cost and longest reserve of similar companies in Canada. It offers great downside protection. It can sustain its dividend and last year returned $7.1 billion to investors which should be repeated this year. It also got rid of $2 billion in debt.       Buy 16  Hold 6  Sell 0

In Q2-2025, the company generated an adjusted EPS of $0.71, compared to last year’s $0.88; the decline was largely due to weak commodity prices. However, CNQ managed to beat expectations of around $0.63. CNQ also returned around $1.6B to shareholders during the quarter ($1.2B in dividends and $0.4B in share repurchase). CNQ's business continues to remain robust and sustainable, and management believes the company can achieve breakeven in the low to mid-US$40 per barrel range, at which level CNQ could generate enough funds to cover maintenance capex and dividends. CNQ’s management is committed to continuing with its shareholder-friendly policy while maintaining a healthy balance sheet. Though there is some volatility in financial results due to the fluctuation of commodity prices, but we think CNQ continues to be a high-quality cash cow with attractive dividend growth prospects over time.
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In a flat or questionable oil price environment, this former darling is being sold as a relative trade. Take advantage of that. Best operator in the business. Just inked first natural gas contract off an LNG project in the US. Own it long term and do well. Yield is 5.7%.

Definitely don't sell. If you have extra funds, buy more. Happy to buy around low $40s. Premium assets, lower decline rate. Nice mix of oil and gas. Premium management team, one of the best in the world. FCF returned to shareholders via buybacks, consistent dividend increases. Another one to own forever. Has never cut the dividend, now 5.5%.