Opinions
Lorne Zeiler
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
CM-T
COMMENT
Dec 23, 2016
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Premium contentWe've already recommended National Bank, so let's look at the second-cheapest bank, CIBC, with its 11.2.x PE and EPS growth over five years of 5.39%, better than RY's 5.16%. Commerce has beaten its last four quarters with room to spare, and pays a safe dividend of 4.49%. Its EPS growth is beating the sector, and its most recent EPS was 17.89% higher than a year ago. CIBC's margins outpace the sector. Unlike TD, CIBC has a small presence south of the border. Because of that, a lot of its business lies in Canada—residential mortgages and commercial business—which will slow down if the economy does. That would explain why the street has assigned CIBC a lower future PE of 11.09x. That said, CIBC offers a safe, generous dividend with reasonable room to grow, certainly better than TD.
Owns it in his firm's dividend model. Doesn't expect a stock split, as banks have abandoned the old rule of thumb to split once stock reaches $100.
We now have an understanding that tariffs will be 35%, which will cause some havoc importing our goods into the US. But can Mark Carney grow Canada by continuing to reduce barriers and by seeing some growth between provinces? If yes, then banks in general are primed to do quite well going forward. They'll be supplying the funding for companies, infrastructure, etc.
The chart shows a V-shaped recovery since April's tariff worries. In Canada, interest rates have been cut aggressively, so the Canadian banks have skated through. Wealth management divisions are strong. Loan loss provisions are down. NA and RY are the best, but CM and BMO are reporting much better earnings, which catches his attention.
CIBC or another Canadian bank?Canadian banks have had a fantastic year. The 6 have basically been responsible for half, if not more, of the total gains on the TSX this year. As a group, they have returned roughly 30% this year. The issue with the banks is that they are now trading above their historical multiples, particularly because in the last few months, they’ve had a big increase along with the US financials, on expectations that net interest margins are going to expand. If there is further deterioration on Canadian fundamentals, this is the most domestically focused bank. Royal (RY-T) is probably a better name to go with.