Stockchase Opinions

Keith Richards Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund CHE.UN-T TOP PICK Apr 20, 2015

Stock tends to trade between $19 and $22. It is at the top of its trading range, but thinks there is going to be more money rotating into it over the summer. Good dividend of around 5%. Low volatility.

$22.030

Stock price when the opinion was issued

chemicals
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 18/24, Up 33%)

Also pays a big, fat dividend, which sometimes you need to be cautious on. Drawing a linear regression line helps the chart make more sense, especially with a volatile stock. Linear regression helps you see through all the peaks and valleys. Stockcharts.com is a good place to go for this, as well as most of the discount brokers.

TOP PICK

Very interesting company. Makes sulfuric acid, processes spent acids, produces inorganic coagulants for water treatment. A basic industry company, but one of the largest in NA in terms of asset production. 

A lot of people are focusing on semiconductors, but when you make those chips the purity of the sulfuric acid is extremely high, and this company is an integral supplier. This gives it a good competitive advantage especially compared to European peers, as energy prices in Europe are quite high. Should have a good run going forward. Yield is 5.8%.

(Analysts’ price target is $14.29)
HOLD
Yield is ~6%.

Looking at a 5-year chart, getting close to its 5-year high. Nice breakout above $10. If you take the height of the consolidation pattern (resistance was $10 - support of $7 = $3), and add it up again, you get ~$13, at least to start. That's what we're looking for over the shorter term. Then maybe it consolidates and may continue higher over the longer term.

WEAK BUY

Nice beat, upward revisions on 2024 guidance. Third consecutive guidance raised. Leverage keeps going down, balance sheet firepower keeps improving. Not that expensive. Payout ratio only 52%. Not highest quality, cyclical. Probably still upside.

He owns only a little bit, less than 1%.

HOLD

Recent pullback along with the market. Support around $10.50, which it is approaching. Unless that breaks materially (more than just a few cents, and more than just a few days), stay with it. You get your dividend, and chart looks fine.

DON'T BUY

He's traded this a few times. Is one of the most volatile stocks he's ever seen. Unpredictable falls and rallies. Doesn't like it. If you want to own, see if it holds support at $10.50; it's starting to break that. Again, hard to predict this. Maybe, $8.50 the bottom.

HOLD
Why the selloff?

Probably pulled back because of the 10-year treasury rising. Just increased dividend, that should continue. Coming out of a long turnaround. Core holding in his income fund. At $14, he'd probably trim; at $17-18, would probably exit. Yield is 6.4%.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 29/24, Up 6%)

Will probably do reasonably well in light of tariffs, as the chemicals they provide for NA water treatment are rather nichey. Well-run company. Its decent and safe dividend makes investors more tolerant of rough waters.

BUY

A top pick last November, because it's one of the leaders in industrial chemicals in North America. There's a lot going on behind the scenes here. He didn't see the downturn in this sector as well as intense competition. Likely, shares won't recover until the economy picks up, but an opportunity now.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Everybody loves the dividend here. Made a really bad acquisition 10 years ago, company was punished. Off that bottom, it's been pretty impressive. Q1 beat by 15%, raised guidance. Really good progress on capital allocation -- dividend raises, small tuck-ins, buybacks. Trades ~4.7 EBIT to EBITDA vs. its normal 6.3 mid-cycle valuation. Add on dips.