Peter Arender, CFACameco CorporationCCO.TODON'T BUYApr 21, 2004

Commodities is tough, because it's been so hot. CCO is one of the few investable plays in uranium, so it's very expensive, too high for him.

In a longer-term uptrend. Fallen off, but coming into support. His only concern is that materials in general are under pressure, expects more weakness. Next 4-6 weeks will be choppy -- use that weakness to add for the long term. Likes the uranium story.

Shares are up because of a resurgence of demand for nuclear power. CCO is the largest producer of uranium and is a low-cost producer. The prices for uranium are expected to climb further.

Increasingly integrated in nuclear facilities (e.g., stake in Westinghouse). Supply constraints can cause prices to soar, but then new supply comes on in rest of the world. High valuation.

He owns some bonds, but hasn't pulled the trigger on the equity. Disconnect between a 10-year horizon for contracts and the current spot price for uranium. Spot price won't be showing up in the profitability.

If you've made money, well done. Remember that commodities tend to overshoot in either direction. Don't add at these levels.

Beat last quarter, but guidance was a bit lower. Very attractive, multi-year outlook, but don't add here. About 40% growth, but trading ~75x PE for 2027. Ironically, a real risk to this name is if peace comes to the Ukraine-Russia war.

You have to have respect for stock prices at both ends of the extreme.

He’s a uranium bull for the next 10 years as a result of structural changes in the business. Also, uranium is the obvious winner from the Gulf conflict. His preference in the space.

The question was actually on the Uranium ETF, Global X. He likes the space for long term sector growth. The sector is good for AI infrastructure build-out and clean energy. Global X has a 24% holding in Cameco and he prefers to own Cameco directly. Cameco's technicals are strong.

Q4 earnings were well above, but guidance was 3% lower. Very attractive multi-year outlook -- demand for uranium won't stop, and this is your marquee player. Growth rate is 40%. Compounded annual growth is 26-28%, amazing.

Valuation is the problem, ~70x PE for 2027. Better value elsewhere.

Extremely overvalued, though he has loved this for many years. It's ahead of its skiis. Would enter when the price is cut in half.

Good buying opportunity. Part of the AI data centre buildout. Market volatility means some are taking profits in this name, but still good long-term hold (at least 5 years).

Pullback simply a result of its big run plus money flow into all commodities. Longer term, lots of runway. World's moving to nuclear. Has revenue and growing earnings. Work your way in on pullbacks.

Nuclear renaissance underway. War in Ukraine tightened supply, and now the US data centre buildout. Clean and green power. Backdrop is the best in decades. Secular growth story, despite its commodity production. Lots more ahead.

Caught momentum from nuclear reinvigoration globally -- key driver for that `is AI demand. By far, nuclear is the most stable and cost-effective. However, building out reactors is not easy (not to mention regulatory hurdles).

Strong underlying trends with demand for uranium. Great name. Another, but safer, way to play indirectly is with ATRL.

CCO is not perfect but if an investor is looking for general exposure in a relatively safe company we would still prefer it today over smaller companies with less profitability.
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