Barry Schwartz Cameco Corporation CCO-T HOLD Jun 03, 2025

On her watchlist. Have to have a very long-term view on uranium to buy this name. Long-term contracts, which don't reflect uranium spot price. Nuclear resurgence, positive on the sector. Price still ahead of itself. She has indirect exposure through BIP.UN, which co-owns Westinghouse with CCO.

Nuclear power is a way forward and there is a case for smaller nuclear power plants. He doesn't like cyclical stocks but Cameco is in a bit of a sweet spot. Lots of power will be needed for AI data centres.

Came off quite significantly between December and March. Previous high was ~$85; the 50% retracement takes us to $72.50. This is where we saw some resistance in early February. Hard to say if it would get to $80. Usually, if there's a move in a stock, the countermove can often be about half of that.

CCO has had three broker target price downgrades in April. In addition, the uranium sector has been weak as investors consider whether Russian exports will be allowed to resume if there is some resolution to the Ukraine War.
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Uranium stocks have been pulling back since November, before the market started to correct. Technically in the near term, they're all broken. Long-term picture is excellent. Don't add here, until you see something change for the better.

He and his team are secular bulls on the nuclear renaissance. Cheap and clean. Has second-largest stock of uranium in the world. Utilities that buy uranium are like deer in the headlights right now on uncertainty of whether Washington will broker a truce with Russia on Ukraine, bringing Russian uranium back online.

Think of it as a core position in a Canadian context. Uranium has really come into its own. Outside of speculative companies, is the best low-cost producer. Nuclear servicing via Westinghouse purchase. Not something you need to jump into with both feet today.

Uranium stocks had a fantastic run. Not at a 12-month low but, fundamentally speaking, you have utilities that aren't properly covered in terms of their needs. Supply issues. Not many are starting new mines, as they wait for prices to get back to $100/pound. It takes time to start new mines. Buy it now, knowing of the fundamental global energy trend in place. Modular reactors will become reality over the next 10 years.

Spot market is what people look at every single day, and that's where you see the gyrations in uranium prices. Right now, ~$65/pound. Term market is where most of the long-term contracting gets done, such as by utilities; and that one's been fairly steady.

Extended in the short term, likely to see a pullback to around $74-75. Once that's done, broader reacceleration after that. But downtrend definitely broken, and it's in a new intermediate-term uptrend.

A rising tide floats all boats, and that's where we are now in the market. But remember that August and September are typically the worst months for equities. So you can hold this name till then, but then look to manage some risk.