Stockchase Opinions

Robert Gill Cameco Corporation CCO-T SELL Apr 25, 2024

Rather than try to predict the future of commodity prices, which is difficult, his firm tries to prepare for various outcomes. Has done extremely well, driven by high price of the commodity, which is at highest level since 2007. One of the world's largest producers, operates globally. Also owns 49% of Westinghouse.

Likes its assets, which are in good geopolitical jurisdictions, a real advantage. Main competition is in Kazakhstan, which comes with complications.

However, current valuation of 40x PE is very expensive. Trailing earnings is 80x. No dividend. Take money off the table and invest where there's more upside.

$66.680

Stock price when the opinion was issued

integrated mines
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WAIT

Technical structure has been very strong. 200-day MA trending higher. Stock's trading right at that 200-day, which could provide support. Fell off on the DeepSeek buzz (if not as much energy is needed, maybe not as much uranium is needed either) -- quite a stretch. Long term, makes a lot of sense. Expensive valuation.

TOP PICK

Best way to participate in Uranium them. Believes Uranium prices will continue to rise. Recent weakness in Uranium prices has created buying opportunity. Owns large portion of Westinghouse - manufacture of nuclear related assets. Excellent growth prospects. Dividend continues to rise with earnings. Capital discipline with strong balance sheet. 

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Looking at it closely. Long-term future of nuclear looks very positive. Electrification of the economy increasing power demand. Many governments more willing to build facilities. Well managed. Good buy on a pullback like today.

WATCH

On her watchlist. Have to have a very long-term view on uranium to buy this name. Long-term contracts, which don't reflect uranium spot price. Nuclear resurgence, positive on the sector. Price still ahead of itself. She has indirect exposure through BIP.UN, which co-owns Westinghouse with CCO.

COMMENT

Nuclear power is a way forward and there is a case for smaller nuclear power plants. He doesn't like cyclical stocks but Cameco is in a bit of a sweet spot. Lots of power will be needed for AI data centres.

BUY

Came off quite significantly between December and March. Previous high was ~$85; the 50% retracement takes us to $72.50. This is where we saw some resistance in early February. Hard to say if it would get to $80. Usually, if there's a move in a stock, the countermove can often be about half of that.

RISKY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

CCO has had three broker target price downgrades in April. In addition, the uranium sector has been weak as investors consider whether Russian exports will be allowed to resume if there is some resolution to the Ukraine War.
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DON'T BUY

Uranium stocks have been pulling back since November, before the market started to correct. Technically in the near term, they're all broken. Long-term picture is excellent. Don't add here, until you see something change for the better.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 11/24, Down 15%)

He and his team are secular bulls on the nuclear renaissance. Cheap and clean. Has second-largest stock of uranium in the world. Utilities that buy uranium are like deer in the headlights right now on uncertainty of whether Washington will broker a truce with Russia on Ukraine, bringing Russian uranium back online.

WATCH

Think of it as a core position in a Canadian context. Uranium has really come into its own. Outside of speculative companies, is the best low-cost producer. Nuclear servicing via Westinghouse purchase. Not something you need to jump into with both feet today.