Cameco CorporationCCO.TOCOMMENTAug 17, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 23, 2026. Market Open.
Has a trailing stop on every position. As a stock rallies, they ratchet up the stop loss. They exited at $150. As a cyclical, you have to pick your spots. Not necessarily one to own come hell or high water. At some point, it will set up again (likely when there's clarity about how long the Fed will hike for).
It peaked earlier this year. Each time it's tried to rally this year, it has sold off to a lower high, and whenever it's tried to rally, it reaches a lower high. Over 5 years, the trend remains up. If you believe there's a long-term trend for nuclear power, stick with it. But he doesn't see the world returning to nuclear in a big way. This correction period could see more downside.
There are tailwinds there since it will be a challenge meeting the demands from all the new nuclear facilities coming online in the next few years. Therefore prices for uranium should go higher. The pullback over the past four months in this sector is a result of expectations getting too high. All these small nuclear reactors that are talked about will take time to build. More nuclear energy will be generated over the next five years.
ChatGPT unleashed a need for reliable power to electricity-hungry data centres. Recent results were mixed, but noteworthy was Westinghouse filing confidential IPO application. That should be huge, and CCO will benefit as 50% owner. Uranium supply/demand should get much tighter; demand will grow, and governments are investing in nuclear.
PE is high, but it's more of a net asset value story (very discounted compared to what it's really worth).
He is watching this and spending a little bit of time looking at it because it is so beat up. Reported a pretty miserable Q2, and the stock fell further. It still trades at a relatively high valuation multiple of about 17X next year’s earnings. There are still a number of concerns about the oversupply of uranium, and part of that needs to be resolved by getting a number of these Japanese nuclear reactors back online. There is also a CRA issue that is overhanging the stock, and it is probably priced in. If there was a negative decision from the trial, it could have a further negative impact on the share price.