Caterpillar (CAT)

All 3 of the Top Picks today involve taking a bit of money away from the infrastructure plays.

This name plus WMT have been using AI the most and for the longest. Has autonomous and semi-autonomous machines. For those machines that have drivers, they just launched a CAT-AI system -- like having a friend and a coach in the cab. AI is being used for predicting and for supply chains.

His 12-month price target is $750. Buy 1/3 here, another ~$645, and the final 1/3 ~$605. Yield is 0.89%.

It reports Thursday. They make back-up generators needed to keep server farms at data centres running. CAT no longer falls on earnings, not anymore. He likes CAT.

Many feel this is a data centre play, so shares are up 54% in one year. Too high to buy now.

Likes CAT in the industrial space.

With recent events in Venezuela (and that's a longer-term type of thing), he certainly sees the path for more infrastructure buildout around the world. Obviously, some of the US names are multinational so you could stick with those. There are global names out there, but the US names will get you far.

He took profits, and the stock keeps going up. Concerned that PE is near a 10-year high, so valuation's getting tricky. Forward PE is about 29x for ~11% growth, a bit expensive for an industrial. But he does love the name. We'll see a lot more infrastructure buildout.

If you're looking to get in, wait for a dip.

Upgraded today. Momentum will keep this going up. They trend to data centre building only helps.

They primarily benefit from building data centres, from the AI play.

Took profits, because it got a bit expensive based on historical averages and peer valuations. Trading at 28x forward PE with 11% growth. If it pulled back enough, he'd look at it again.

What's interesting about this name is that it's performing well partly because of data centre expansion. You need equipment to build data centres to support the AI boom.

Is up 59% this year, due to much of their equipment used to build data centres. They hold an analyst meeting on Tuesday. Seems more growth ahead.

If you think there's going to be a mining cycle, it's a given that this name will sell a lot of equipment. 

People are underestimating its big turbine business -- natural gas turbine generators that are smaller than utility-grade generators. This part of the business feeds right into the data centre buildout. Can be used for alternate, backup sources of power. Only 5% of revenue right now, but could grow 10-25% a year over next few years with strong pricing. Yield is 1.12%.

Sold as too pricey when it got to 27x forward PE for 6-7% growth. Because it's so cyclical, it moves around and this will give him another chance to buy.

Projected 18% earnings growth in 2026, yet trades at only 22x PE 2026.

Have a strong backlog. Wants to see margins improvement. It's had a huge run, but can keep going to finish the year strongly.

Upgraded today. Is fairly valued. The quarter was good, but not exciting. Is a core position of his. The risk is if Russia and Ukraine end the war, this could lower commodity prices, but he doesn't expect this anytime soon.

It reports Tuesday. He expects a good quarter as CAT rides the wave of infrastructure spending and re-shoring.