John O'Connell, CFA
Ballard Power Systems
BLDP-T
DON'T BUY
Aug 10, 2021
Hydrogen power outlook in general The green energy space is interesting as battery power will continue to be a key driver in powertrain. Hydrogen power will be a fringe part of this. During the hydrogen power crazy last winter, BLDP raise a good deal of capital. The company is now sustainable and are adept at living within its means. But the stock is now overpriced. What will they do with all that cash they raised months ago? He'll stay away.
Spike in the chart was a result of pandemic enthusiasm, ARKK investing, brighter future. Concerned it's going to sit in a trading range over the next 2 years, dead money. If it trends lower, move out of the position and put your money to work in something that's working.
Good opportunity with China opening up? China is the source of its largest orders. There's been a lag. Not too involved in China's EV trade. Longer term, hydrogen is more of a 10-year story, not a China reopening story. Can this technology be commercialized, and does BLDP have enough tech leadership to make it unique as everyone scrambles for a piece of the pie? Lots of challenges. High on speculation, so it depends on your timeline and risk tolerance.
Dream stock for 20 years (performance not materialized). Hydrogen not gaining enough market share. Would not recommend buying shares. Does not earn enough profit.
Long term hydrogen will be in demand. Short term - business prospects unsure. Company will need to generate profits to earn investment grade status. Unsure on future of business.
Highly speculative. He owns a tiny position. Society won't power EVs purely on batteries and will require a bridge that Ballard could benefit from. They represent value. A long-term hold for him.
They make fuel cells for large vehicles. It has traded sideways for most of its history. There are two major questions regarding hydrogen: where does it come from and how do you transport it since it has to be highly compressed.
It holds promise to be a player in alternative energy. Today, there was an announcement of a major order and could improve sentiment. This is a patience game. You need a long-term view, because there will be various alternative forms of energy and momentum could shift.
Recently, a lot more interest in hydrogen, which might be a spur to break its longtime downward trend. Very small company, not grabbing his attention. Better things to invest your $$ in.
Renewables at lower cost rates don't work; you need the subsidies. But what does work are large-scale hydrogren projected. Not sure about small-scale like Ballard.