Opinions
Paul MacDonald
Biogen IDEC Inc.
BIIB-Q
DON'T BUY
Oct 20, 2020
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly BIIB has been on a roller-coaster. When the FDA announced a priority review of a new Alzheimer's drug, it stock soared to $360. When the review failed to approve the drug in the first go-round, the stock plunged to under $250 -- so it goes with drug manufacturers. Its MS drugs continue to do well and it is working on treatments for Parkinson's disease as well. Trading at 8x earnings, it is cheap compared to peers at 30x. We would buy this with a $180 stop-loss looking to achieve $305 -- 26% upside. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $305.90)
(A Top Pick Nov 26/20, Up 26.1%)Stochchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with CIEN has gapped up through the $305 target. To be disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $180) to $305. If triggered, this would all but guarantee a minimum investment return over 26%.
https://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/fda_sets_november_date_for_expert_panel_review_of_biogens_aducanumab_1351831 Until February 2020, Biogen's FDA results of an Alzheimer drug was the healthcare event of the year (then Covid hit). Novartis and other players are starting to compete here, though. He owned Biogen some years ago. He was on a panel which was split over whether Biogen would get FDA approval on Nov. 6. Regardless, this is a high-risk play; this could pop 35-50% up or down. The risk/return is too much for him. The drug has a checkered past and so far there is no effective Alzheimer's drug, but if it works it will be huge for the company and society.