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The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)Biogen IDEC Inc.BIIBTOP PICKNov 26, 2020

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly BIIB has been on a roller-coaster. When the FDA announced a priority review of a new Alzheimer's drug, it stock soared to $360. When the review failed to approve the drug in the first go-round, the stock plunged to under $250 -- so it goes with drug manufacturers. Its MS drugs continue to do well and it is working on treatments for Parkinson's disease as well. Trading at 8x earnings, it is cheap compared to peers at 30x. We would buy this with a $180 stop-loss looking to achieve $305 -- 26% upside. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $305.90)

The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)

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$241.75

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$199.53

As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.

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DON'T BUY

Not impressed with products. Competitors out performing.

COMMENT

They haven't launched their weight-loss drug yet, but the company's expects something big from it next year. The problem is that BIIB is lumped in with the general drug group.

BUY

A great stock that whose Alzheimer drug will do well. (See also Eli Lilly.) Shares bounced along, but now picked up momentum.

BUY

The FDA figure who was key in getting their Alzheimer's drug recently left the FDA, but all the Alzheimer's plays declined except Biogen.

DON'T BUY

They own almost nothing in the Health Care space and Biotech is particularly weak.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 26/20, Up 32.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with BIIB has triggered its stop at $320. We recommend covering the position at this time. We will look for another entry point when value is justified again.

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Unlock this Panic-proof Portfolio opinion with Stockchase Premium

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 26/20, Up 43%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with BIIB is progressing well. We now recommend trailing up the stop (from $305) to $320. If triggered this would all but guarantee a investment return over 29%, when including the previous recommendation to cover half.

Premium content

Unlock this Panic-proof Portfolio opinion with Stockchase Premium

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 26/20, Up 26.1%)Stochchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with CIEN has gapped up through the $305 target. To be disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $180) to $305. If triggered, this would all but guarantee a minimum investment return over 26%.

DON'T BUY

Very high risk, very high reward. Seeing competition on its core drugs. Its Alzheimer's drug didn't get a great reception. Somewhere around June 7 the regulator will rule on this drug. Could be impacted 30% up or 50% down. Not for him.

BUY

The FDA found Biogen's Alzheimer's drug effective and exploded 44% today amid the post-election rally. Overall, healthcare stocks have more room to run. You need to own some healthcare in a portfolio.

DON'T BUY

https://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/fda_sets_november_date_for_expert_panel_review_of_biogens_aducanumab_1351831 Until February 2020, Biogen's FDA results of an Alzheimer drug was the healthcare event of the year (then Covid hit). Novartis and other players are starting to compete here, though. He owned Biogen some years ago. He was on a panel which was split over whether Biogen would get FDA approval on Nov. 6. Regardless, this is a high-risk play; this could pop 35-50% up or down. The risk/return is too much for him. The drug has a checkered past and so far there is no effective Alzheimer's drug, but if it works it will be huge for the company and society.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He bought it two months ago. They have a diabetes drug candidate, the only company.. They have a history of above-average returns, which ticks that box. Buy at $250-270 If the drug is approved, he predicts the stock to hit $350-400.

DON'T BUY

The sector has done poorly, and the summer is seasonality. A lot of this has to do with the US election campaign with candidates offering cheap/free healthcare. BIIB fell below support at $250. He is avoiding the entire space.

SELL

He doesn't like their chart. Sell if it closes below $220. Institutions are selling it, and it's selling on weak volume. Had a big breakdown in latter 2018. Look elsewhere.

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