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Alibaba Group HoldingBABADON'T BUYAug 27, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
E-commerce and cloud computing (the most nascent piece). E-commerce is under a lot of strain. AI large-language models are compelling in Chinese market, but that entire market is very competitive and ripe for disruptors. A trading stock over the next 2-3 years. Not a buy-and-hold. Tactically a buy today, but be very careful.
Like Amazon, they dominate key secular growth areas in e-commerce, are in cloud computer though trade at only one third of Amazon's PE. Is a modest grower, but has a huge margin of safety. There's so much pessimism about tariffs now. Wait and see, but would be an opportunity if the tariffs are more bark than bite.
Short answer is yes, he likes it. He was selling into strength a few months ago. Now he's looking to reload. On a 5-year chart, you can see the massive bottoming pattern. Won't see numbers like the previous highs again. Probably worth $125-150 over the next few years, if they can stimulate the consumer and the consumer responds.
Chinese consumers have tons of savings, so the potential is there. Buy on pullbacks. One of the best value retail names out there. But you have to be OK with China exposure.
Charts look a bit negative. Price is below all the moving averages, the 50, 100 and the 200 day, and are trending lower. The reason is most likely because it is in China. Trading at 27X forward earnings with a 23% long-term growth rate, but that growth rate could be volatile given what is happening there.