Mark SebastianBoeingBATRADESep 23, 2024

Their chart looks good. The CEO is in China and there's a good chance Boeing will strike a deal.

Tragic control issues have been straightened out, but future prospects are already built into the share price. Success is not guaranteed. Are better opportunities elsewhere.

Making progress, but still in recovery mode. Wants to see longer track record of consistent execution. Deliveries are picking up, massive order book. Cashflow has finally turned positive. Complex industry can create bumps along the road. 2/10 on value.

Probably two different animals in terms of exposures. Which one you prefer depends on what you're looking for.

BA is coming off a very difficult time in terms of culture -- relationship with FAA, turnaround, planes grounded. Tough road, but hopefully coming off the bottom. Growing ~14%. Recently announced increase in production levels. This may improve FCF.

LMT growing at a slower rate of 5%. Much more exposure to defense. Robust spending on defense around the world.

Boeing continues to recover from its problems of a few years back, and is winning orders again. The stock is up 31% in the past year. Net debt is still very very high (27x cash flow) but EPS is expected to rise 10-fold into 2027, after seven straight years of losses. The sector rally has helped sentiment here for sure. The stock is now very expensive on valuation. The analysts favour it more than before, certainly, but it would still not make their top five in the defense/aerospace sector. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Still has a lot of debt, and that's one of his biggest issues. New management has done a pretty good job turning the ship around. Not a bad bet in the sector, but he's not crazy about the sector.

It reports Tuesday. Shares have jumped since the last quarter, and he doubts that can report a number to equal that move up. Hold, because they're in year one of a multi-year turn in Boeing.

On technicals, 200-day MA is slowly trending higher and that's positive. Stock price is above that, which is also positive. Not usually a name for his portfolios, based on its products -- they can be very volatile due to global issues and product controls. Economy can affect deliveries. 

Combo of aerospace and defense. In that space, he'd veer more toward pure defense.

He added more. The company did everything wrong year after year, but is now beyond a turnaround story. It's now an investment. Was up 30% last year. The order backlog is there, plus defence is aerospace as a tailwind.

He bought more Boeing. The company has gone through horrific years, with bad news after bad news. But they are turning the page by taking advantage of the defence and aerospace stories. They aren't going crazy with deliveries but are ramping it. They are worried about efficiency and safety, which is really important. Good profit margins.

Are finally getting their act together, but wouldn't buy unless it's under $200. The last quarter was very good with positive cash flow.

Ups and downs over the years. OK right now and looks fairly resilient. Trending upward, so far so good. Holding above $200-210 support. You have to play the trend on this one. (Years ago, he got back in thinking all troubles were behind it, and he woke up one morning to find one of the doors had fallen off.)

He started a position earlier this month. He avoided it for a long time, but this year he wanted it to take advantage of Trump's trade war. Also, the CEO is doing a good job. He entered after the big pullback earlier this month. Buy some, then wait till it touches $200. Reasons: only 2 companies build at scale commercial jets in the world such as Japan ordering 100 Boeing jets. Making more planes will boost their cash flow. The CEO has cleaned up the messy balance sheet; has sold parts of the operation to pay off debt.

They report this weak. He expects a good report. Buy if this falls to $220.

They just announced huge Q2 deliveries. He sees this flying much higher.