Stockchase InsightsAritzia Inc.ATZ.TOBUYJan 10, 2025

Consumer is the casualty in an inflationary world. In general, he's staying away from the consumer unless you have something really special (like this name).

Is one of his largest holdings. Have expanded into only half the US, so it's early innings for them. There's plenty of room to grow. Zara has 2,000 stores worldwide compared to ATZ's 140.

Trimmed, because he had a big weight. Nice expansion in the price. They are still expanding in the U.S. with a long runway. Margins recovered as did supply chains. Are opening flagship stores in place like Fifth Avenue. It has become more expensive, but need flawless execution for shares to continue higher. Execution has been there. They face competition, but ATZ is new to Americans.

In the consumer discretionary space, she's been underweight on concerns of consumer spending. 

Definitely still a strong Canadian brand. Still working through rebranding after a tougher stretch in the US. Focusing more on premium everyday apparel. Vertical integration brings control over design pricing margins, which is a big advantage in retail. Demand is stabilizing. New US stores are performing well. Growth trend remains intact. Improving e-commerce experience.

Recovering financially, margins are improving, inventories are normalizing. Fundamentally strong and solid at 9/10, but value is 1/10. Analysts still rank it Buy and Outperform. She expects a pullback in the short term.

Up 10% today is quite positive, as would crossing the recent high of ~$90. If it has trouble getting through that level, some of today's gain may be pared off.

Remains very highly ranked within Canada on RSI. Continues to go up. In tech, retailers have been picking up as central banks have started to cut interest rates.

Has been great long-term. Likes that the payback from new store openings has been very high. They don't open that many stores as peers, but still significant. It's a retailer though, and things can change long term. Yes, discretionary spending is the first to go in an economic downturn, but just as important is the Coolness Factor. Is this cool? Look at same-store sales growth and their marketing strategy. ATZ is doing the right things. A solid hold for now.

He wouldn't buy now because it has shot up so much. It was their largest holding but they have taken some profits recently. It is not priced in to their growth margin. It has a history of volatility so if it drops by 1/4 to 1/3 you could consider taking a position. You should be aware of the effects of tariffs. The products they have in their U.S. stores basically come from overseas. The long term picture is very attractive with lots of runway for growth internationally and the opening of new stores in the U.S.

They act more like a staple. They attract a wide range of age groups, young and old. Competition is tough, but they are run well and trade at a reasonable PE.

It has had 30% revenue growth year over year and e-commerce was up over 50%. It did temper guidelines in the last report. Wait for a downturn because it has history of volatility and is up a lot right now. The market is myopic in the way it looks at quarter by quarter results and any changes in margins.

So early in its growth phase. Square footage growth about 10-15% for next 5 years, and add that to same-store sales growth of ~5-6%. Under-penetrated in US.

Really impressive Q4, very strong brand, US expansion is going extremely well. Tariff impact due to where it sources product, and investors are still evaluating that (and you should, too, before stepping in). He's always wanted to own, but trades at premium. Long-term will do well, quality company, excellent financials.

Issue these companies face is where the manufacturing is, hard to move it someplace else. Margin hit will probably be more than the 2.5% calculated by Raymond James. Lots of uncertainty, stock can probably fall further.

With tariffs, could see the price of clothing go up. As Springsteen sang, textile jobs are not coming back to NA; clothes will still be imported. Impact on the clothing industry remains to be seen. Thinks prices will go higher, but people still need to get dressed. Onshoring will be a multi-year journey.

Correction is probably overdone, will probably bounce.

The question was on Aritzia or Dollarama taking some of the space left by the bankruptcy of HBC and could Aritzia move back up to $70. The answer was inconclusive.